The only thing that is certain for the Atlanta Braves on Monday is that if they make it to the playoffs, they will face the Padres in the NL Wild Card round. Due to the state of their tiebreakers over the Mets and Diamondbacks, they are locked into the fifth seed in the National League if they get into the postseason at all. Beyond that, there is a lot that can happen today and not all of it is good.
For the first game of this truly cursed doubleheader against the Mets, the Braves are sending Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound. On the surface, this is really good news as not only has Schwellenbach been one of the Braves' better starters in the second half overall, but he has been particularly good against the really good teams he has faced and especially against the Mets in 2024.
Spencer Schwellenbach in 2 starts vs. the Mets:
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 30, 2024
14 IP
5 H
1 R
1 BB
15 K#MLBTonight takes a look at tomorrow's Mets/Braves doubleheader and the potential clinch scenarios in the NL. pic.twitter.com/ZKdgQ0j0HZ
More than just being a strong starter to run out there on what is the most critical "regular season" day in recent Braves history, Atlanta getting a strong start and win out of Schwellenbach may be the key to the Braves being able to do anything meaningful with a potential playoff berth.
Braves winning the first game of their doubleheader is crucial to playoff hopes
The Braves' mission on Monday is relatively straightforward. If they earn at least a split with the Mets, they are in the postseason. That matters more than anything else and losing the first game would not immediately destroy those playoff aspirations. However, what losing the first game COULD do is mess up Atlanta's rotation so badly that getting past the Wild Card round against San Diego may be near impossible.
We are well-aware of the Braves' plans for using Chris Sale at this point. In an ideal world, they would avoid throwing him in this doubleheader at all so that he could pitch the first game of a playoff series with plenty of rest which would, in theory, put the Braves in a great position to take said first game of a very short series.
However, the Braves have already committed to using Sale if they were facing elimination before that. If Schwellenbach were to falter and/or the offense failed to show up again in the first game of the doubleheader, that is the exact position the Braves would find themselves in and that would disastrous.
Assuming for a moment that the Braves did lose the first half of the twin bill today, Sale coming in and saving the day could easily be a short-lived celebration because the Braves would then have to fly across the country and play the Padres with their best Game One starting option, Max Fried, having to throw on short rest which is not something Fried has historically excelled at doing. If that is what unfolds on Monday, the Braves' playoff run could easily be a short one if the Braves even get into the postseason at all.
Again, Schwellenbach has been awesome this season and Braves fans should feel good about sending him out there today. As much as it is to ask of a rookie who hasn't been in this position before, the Braves are going to need him to continue his run of dominance against New York because if he struggles, Atlanta will be in a rough spot even if they still manage to salvage a split in the second game.