While the core of the Atlanta Braves lineup is under control through 2027 or longer, there are gaping holes in the offense at shortstop, in left field, and on the bench that hinder the team’s ability to score runs.
After publicly declaring that barring retirement or resignation, all of the Braves 2024 coaches would be back next year, Alex Anthopoulos fired hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, assistant hitting coach Bobby Magallanes, and Sal Fasano, whose task was, I assume, cultivating better mustaches.
However, as a former lead national baseball writer for NBC Sports and editor on Hardball Talk in his newsletter last week, firing a coach doesn't fix anything.
"Teams make changes when they underperform, and that’s even the case when a lot of that underperformance is attributable to a massive number of key injuries and regression to the mean.” -Craig Calcaterra
The 2025 Braves lineup will feature the same core but not the same order
Ronald Acuña Jr. will return, but he has indicated he won’t be chasing 70 stolen bases again, and I expect Brian Snitker to give him lots of rest. I don't know how he does that with Marcell Ozuna as DH, but Snit won’t rush Ronnie.
Michael Harris II should fill in as the leadoff man when Acuña isn’t in the lineup and slide into the two-slot when Acuña is in the lineup. Brian Snitker likes to be loyal, but batting Ozzie Albies second next season ignores Harris's huge step forward this year. Statistically, Harris more closely fits the two slot, and he’s a lefty bat to keep the right-left thing going.
The three and five slots required the same type of batter, so Riley and Ozuna are interchangeable. However, Ozuna should bat third because he was so good there after taking over from Riley in May. Matt Olson will return to form and continue to bat fourth, and Riley will start the season in the fifth spot.
Ozzie could easily slip into the sixth spot. He has power and speed and is currently the best remaining batter. The rest of the lineup depends on what the front office does to fill the voids.
I believe the Braves give Sean Murphy a chance to redeem himself after a season-long slump precipitated by his oblique injury and resultant lost time. Murphy’s bat speed and swing rates looked relatively the same, but he was missing fastballs he usually crushed. That looks like a timing issue, which a healthy offseason and Spring Training can correct.
Travis d’Arnaud is expected back and, like Murphy, will bat seventh or eighth, depending on the left fielder.
The hugely expensive deal for Jarrad Kelenic looks terrible right now. His defense is as expected, but sadly, so is his bat. He had the same kind of hot streak this year that he had to Seattle in 2023. I hope he figures it out, but right now, he projects as a glove-first fourth outfielder.
Ramon Laureano’s time as a Braves looked a lot like his 2018 season. A PED suspension interfered, and he hasn’t been the same player since, but I expect the Braves to see if he’s turned a corner. If he has, he’ll be a great asset.
The Braves have to trade Jorge Soler or play him in left field. He’s too slow and not a good enough defender to play right, and Ozuna is a better DH. The good news is his contract isn’t prohibitive if the Braves are willing to take a warm body back…and they should.
The Braves must address the shortstop position in 2025
Anyone surprised at Orlando Arcia’s season hadn’t looked at his time before he came to Atlanta. The Braves gave him a multi-year deal because the shortstop market was thin to nonexistent. Things aren’t much different this offseason, but Arcia won’t improve, so the team has to turn over every rock looking for a deal.
Willy Adames will get six or seven years at an AAV near $25M, which moves him out of the aisle where the Braves typically shop. In Friday’s MLBTR subscriber chat, Anthony Franco suggested the Mariners might be ready to move on from J.P. Crawford. Crawford’s not in the same zip code defensively as Arcia, and while his bat is slightly better, it’s nothing to brag about.
If I decided to reach into my prospect pool for a shortstop, I’d try to pry Nico Hoerner away from the Cubs. Hoerner isn’t going to hit a ton of homers, but he’s a career .338 OBP guy who’s been a four-win player in the Cubs middle infield for three seasons. They’ve used him at second since Swanson arrived, but in 2022, he put up 13 outs above average for Chicago. He’s under team control through 2026 with an $11.6M AAV.
Filling the open positions isn’t easy. It’s worth asking Baltimore which firstborn child each of us has to offer to acquire Jackson Holiday. I prefer Carson Williams, but the Rays won't move him unless we provide a ridiculous offer.
Like my projection about Seitzer, all of this could change with one of AA’s famous deals out of nowhere, but those are getting harder to find at positions where the Braves need help. When that happens, I’ll let you know.