Entering Friday’s action, the Atlanta Braves lead Major League Baseball in runs scored. Atlanta’s dynamic offense has excelled in multiple facets, combining prolific power at the plate with exceptional production in clutch runners-in-scoring-position situations.
No single player can shoulder all of the credit for Atlanta’s offensive firepower. Instead, the Braves’ deep lineup has received contributions throughout the batting order. While some players have built stronger MVP cases than others, Atlanta legitimately finds itself with four National League MVP candidates through the season’s first 38 games.
Jason Foster of MLB.com recently highlighted each of Atlanta’s MVP candidates and provided context for just how impressive their starts to the season have been. The players identified as contenders were Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II. Each player has enjoyed a tremendous start to the 2026 campaign, giving legitimate credibility to their early MVP cases. However, one player’s underlying metrics suggest his production may be less sustainable at an MVP level compared to his teammates.
Ozzie, we love him!#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/sPk2Wf3Qmm
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 5, 2026
Ozzie Albies has been awesome, but Braves fans shouldn't start dreaming on an MVP season
Ozzie Albies has undoubtedly shown that he is all the way back this season. Entering Friday, Albies owned a stellar .322/.374/.541 slash line and has looked every bit as impactful as he was during the best years of his major league career. He currently ranks second on the Braves in both wRC+ (152) and fWAR (1.6). However, unlike some of Atlanta’s other standout performers, Albies’ early success appears to be driven more by favorable fortune than entirely sustainable underlying metrics.
Albies has long been a player capable of outperforming his underlying metrics, but the disparity this season is especially notable. Albies currently owns a .397 wOBA, despite carrying a much lower .318 xwOBA. That +.079 gap between his wOBA and xwOBA ranks as the second-largest in Major League Baseball, trailing only Mickey Moniak of the Rockies.
Conversely, Albies’ teammates have seen production that aligns much more closely with their expected metrics. Baldwin owns identical .391 marks in both wOBA and xwOBA, while Olson has posted a far narrower gap between his .445 wOBA and .416 xwOBA. Meanwhile, Harris II has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. Despite recording a strong .366 wOBA, Harris carries a .431 xwOBA — the highest mark on the Braves’ roster.
While Albies deserves immense credit for his outstanding start to the season, the underlying metrics suggest some level of regression could eventually follow. That does not diminish the impact he has made atop Atlanta’s lineup, but it does highlight just how sustainable the production of his fellow MVP-caliber teammates may be.
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