When the 2026 MLB season began, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani would win the National League MVP. After all, Ohtani had won the last two NL MVPs while hardly appearing on the mound, and 2026 was set to be his first full season as a two-way player since joining the Dodgers.
To start the season, Ohtani was the clear favorite, with -125 betting odds to win. Flash forward a month-and-a-half, Ohtani is still the heavy favorite, but Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson is quickly making scorching start to the season might make the debate more interesting.
Matt Olson may steal away the 2026 NL MVP
First basemen rarely win MVP, especially defensive value became more apparent in the 2010s. Since 2011, only three first basemen have won MVP, with then-Braves cornerstone first baseman Freddie Freeman and White Sox slugger Jose Abreu both winning in 2020, and Paul Goldschmidt taking home the NL MVP two years later. It seems improbable that a first baseman could win MVP while playing in the same league as MLB's unicorn, but through 37 games, Olson has at least made it worth a conversation.
Olson has led the pack for a resurgent Braves offense, as he leads the NL in home runs, RBI, and SLG, and of course, games played. The first baseman is seventh in OBP and 11th in AVG, and is not only first in both bWAR and fWAR for the National League, but all of MLB among hitters and pitchers.
Most impressively, Olson 28 extra base hits ranks first in MLB, seven more than the second-best in baseball, Yordan Alvarez and Ben Rice, who are tied at 21. The gap between Olson and the two tied for second is the same as the gap between second place and 45th, where there are currently 10 players tied with 13 extra base hits.
Of course, if Olson wants a series chance at taking home the National League's most prestigious honor, he'll likely need to play at this level across an entire season. For most players, this seems like an impossible task, but for Olson, it's not far off from his excellent 2023, when he finished fourth in MVP voting.
Heading into Wednesday's action against the Mariners, Olson was on pace for 57 homers, which is three more than his career-high of 54 back in 2023. The biggest difference between Olson's 2023 and 2026 right now is the number of doubles hit. In 2023, Olson only hit 27. This year, the lefty has already hit 15. While it would be insane to assume that Olson can keep up a pace of 65 doubles throughout the year, it's completely reasonable to believe he could match his career-high of 44, set in 2022.
Meanwhile, in order to win MVP, Olson would need Shohei Ohtani to lag slightly in either hitting or pitching. Although the four-time MVP has no signs of slowing down on the pitching front, as he leads MLB in ERA at 0.97, he has struggled as a hitter. Ohtani's 131 OPS+ is his lowest since the shortened 2020 season, and 13 points lower than his 2022, where he stayed healthy on the mound for an entire season but lost out on AL MVP honors to Aaron Judge.
Simply put, there is precident for a slugger stealing away an MVP from a healthy Ohtani. Although it might take a historic season, as it did for Judge, Olson is in a prime position to do it right now.
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