Among Atlanta Braves prospect diehards, Alfredo Sena's name comes up frequently. Widely considered to be the top player in the upcoming free agent class, Sena has long been thought to be signing with the Braves, and the odds are good that he will instantly become one of their absolute best prospects on the day he does sign. However, there is some uncertainty over this upcoming international free agent period.
Typically, the international free agent market opens on January 15 each year. Starting on that day, teams can use their yearly international bonus pool to sign any eligible international amateurs to minor league deals. In Sena's case, the current rumor is that Atlanta is poised to pay him over $5 million, which would be the vast majority of their international bonus pool.
The problem is that the odds are extremely high that the upcoming MLB lockout will still be in place when the IFA period is supposed to open up, effectively postponing the start until after the lockout ends. Given the uncertainty, there is some concern among particularly pessimistic Braves fans that the new CBA will include an international draft, which could cost the Braves the chance to sign Sena. However, those fans need to pump the brakes on the panic, at least for now.
Odds are good that even if new CBA includes an international draft, it wouldn't cost Braves chance to sign Alfredo Sena
Given the combination of tools, mature approach, and defensive acumen at shortstop, it is understandable why the idea of losing Sena is causing so much worry. Sena is one of the better international prospects to become available in recent years, and Atlanta desperately needs Sena’s level of elite offensive talent.
To be clear, if the dust settles in these CBA talks and there is somehow an international draft for this class of free agents, the Braves would definitely not get Sena. Not only would Sena be the overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 overall in such a scenario, but no system other than a total international draft first-round lottery (combined with some insane luck) would result in the Braves being in a position to take him.
The issue is that even if everyone agrees an international draft is needed, there is almost no way to actually implement one in time for this year's class. The league is already going to be behind on their calendar coming out of the lockout, so the idea that the powers that be would immediately be able to put a draft system in place after that is pretty ludicrous. We saw this happen with the last CBA, where an international draft was tentatively agreed upon if the qualifying offer system could be scrapped, but it never came to pass, and serious concerns were then raised by David Ortiz and others over rushing implementation of an international draft.
This isn't as simple as just declaring there is an international draft, and then having teams pick. International governments, agencies, and baseball academies have to be consulted. Then you have to figure out the structure, length, and bonus limits, all of which are more complicated than some are letting on. All of those things are worth the effort to figure out, as an international draft may be the best option compared to the current chaotic system that is run by shadowy handlers and handshake agreements. However, it still feels extremely likely that the Braves will end up with Sena, even if both MLBPA and MLB agree to create a draft down the road.
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