Ceiling of the Braves' rotation could solely depend on the health of this young star

The Atlanta Braves 2025 rotation was decimated by injury basically all season. One of the most frustrating injuries from last year was the freak elbow fracture Spencer Schwellenbach suffered in July. Schwellenbach was putting together an impressive sophomore season, and even saw an uptick in velocity before the elbow injury shut him down for the season.

Returning from any sort of elbow injury can be scary, but thankfully the update we got on Schwellenbach this winter seemed to indicate he will enter spring training without limitations. Because of the flashes we saw from Schwellenbach in both 2024 and 2025, the ceiling of the 2026 rotation is something we can dream big about.

Spencer Schwellenbach's upside could carry the Braves' rotation to unreached heights

Schwellenbach had an unprecedented ascension to the Major League level, and his trajectory feels like one that isn't ready to plateau. Thanks to the elite command of his six-pitch mix, Schwellenbach has the tools to beat hitters in a multitude of ways. Finding ways to pitch well when you don't have your best stuff is the trademark of a front of the rotation arm, and Schwellenbach will not be limited in the routes he can go to get big league hitters out.

On a number of levels, Schwellenbach is set for a breakout 2026 season thanks to a combination of athleticism, elite stuff, and command. In 2025, he posted a 3.09 ERA and a minuscule 4.1% walk rate (ranked in the 99th percentile), which is a hallmark of pitchers who sustain success into future seasons. Advanced metrics back up what fans see when he is on the mound, Schwellenbach’s career 3.27 FIP and 3.19 xFIP indicate his run prevention wasn’t luck, but a byproduct of quality pitching and elite command.

Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider’s upside, paired with the elite veteran anchor of the staff in Chris Sale, has plenty of baseball pundits raving about the potential of Atlanta’s rotation. Of course, Alex Anthopoulos would love to add one more reliable arm to the mix, but the importance of that move could diminish if Schwellenbach returns to the level he was pitching at prior to his elbow injury.

Current Steamer projections have Schwellenbach posting a 3.65 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 3.0 fWAR in 167 innings. Schwellenbach finished with a 2.4 fWAR in just 110.2 innings of work last season. If Schwellenbach can remain healthy in 2026, there is little reason to doubt he can surpass those projections. Schwellenbach will almost certainly win a Gold Glove someday, and his steady improvement on the mound makes us believe he could be the key to the entire Braves' rotation.