Ever since Kenshin Kawakami failed to live up to the Atlanta Braves' expectations, the club has completely avoided the Japanese market, even with several elite players coming over to MLB in the 16 years since Kawakami's signing.
When Tatsuya Imai announced he was intending to make the jump from the NPB to MLB, Braves fans hardly blinked an eye. However, when a report on New Year's eve hinted that there might be some interest between the Braves and Imai, fans were intrigued by the 27-year-old righty who had a 1.92 ERA for the Seibu Lions this past season.
Unfortunately, the dream of the Braves inking a Japanese star to bolster their rotation will have to wait, as Imai decided to ink a deal with the Houston Astros. Although it's certainly disappointing that Imai won't be joining the Braves, the contract details show a good reason for Alex Anthopoulos and the front office to avoid the deal.
Imai Contract: $18M a year with $3M in PB at 80ip/90ip/100ip total $21M a year possible. $54M guarantee, $63M possible #astros
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 1, 2026
Astros deal with Tatsuya Imai was one worth avoiding for Braves
Although Imai is not on the same level as Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto when he came to the United States, Imai still finished second in the NPB in strikeouts, had the sixth-lowest ERA, and finished with the eighth-most innings.
MLB.com found similarities in Imai's pitch profile to Luis Castillo, pitching style to Max Scherzer, fastball to Joe Ryan, offspeed variety to Paul Skenes, and backwards slider to Trey Yesavage.
With the Braves still in need of an additional starter, Imai would've have slotted in perfectly in the middle of Atlanta's rotation, behind Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach. MLB Trade Rumors projected the righty would sign for $150 million over six years, which would've averaged out to $25 million per season.
Instead, Imai signed for significantly less in terms of AAV and years, agreeing to a three-year deal worth $54 million, with escalators that could add an additional $3 million per season.
On the surface, it seems like this should've been a no-brainer for Atlanta to match, considering the commitment would be roughly $90 million and three fewer years than expected. However, Imai's deal with the Astros contains two opt-outs, meaning that his only incentive to stay for the second and third years would be if he's not living up to expectations, or barely meeting them.
Additionally, because of how posting rules work, the Astros are on the hook to pay a posting fee based on the $54 million guaranteed (an additional $10 million). If Imai opts out, the Astros won't receive any money back from the posting, even if they wind up only paying the righty $18-$21 million total.
With this in mind, it only makes sense for Anthopoulos and Co. to avoid a deal that would cost them more money than they've ever paid for a pitcher in a single season while also failing to address any long-term pitching needs.
Although the Braves should eventually dip back into the Japanese market, Imai's contract structure wasn't going to be the deal they went for. And fans should be OK with that.