Atlanta Braves’ beat writers and so-called MLB insiders suggest that Alex Anthopoulos is looking for a top-half-of-the-rotation arm, but that’s something he’s never done since coming to Atlanta. The youngest free agent pitcher signed by the Braves since 2018, who became a starter, is Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez was 30 at signing but wasn’t considered a starter by most teams. The remaining starters signed by the Anthopoulos front office were veterans with a history of taking the ball every fifth day.
- Anibal Sanchez, 34 – signed just before spring training after the Twins released him.
- Dallas Keuchel, 31
- Cole Hamels, 36
- Josh Tomlin, 36
- Drew Smyly, 32
- Charlie Morton, 37
- Colin McHugh, 35
Those signings, including Lopez, suggest that Alex Anthopoulos leaned heavily on a Moneyball approach, signing under-value arms rather than paying a premium price and offering a longer term for the hot names.
The free agent market has tempting names, but only a couple of good options including Chris Bassitt
Every free agent pitcher except Tatsuya Ima fits that profile. Ima certainly offers value, and I suspect many others would be shocked if he chose Atlanta.
Framber Valdez is carrying a QO and, according to MLBTR, looking for a $30 million AAV and five years. The Braves have never offered that kind of contract to a pitcher, and the qualifying offer would cost them a draft pick. I understand the GM said he’d give it up if needed, but I think it’s the third strike for Valdez.
Ranger Suarez is also saddled with a qualifying offer. MLBTR projects a five-year deal worth $23 million. Suarez is a great fit, and it would be fun seeing him send the Phillies home disappointed, but the length of the deal and the QO make signing him harder.
Zac Gallen looks like a declining arm, Lucas Giolito hasn’t shown he can return to his pre-injury self, and Zach Littell was a Rays’ success but struggled with the Reds after leaving Tampa.
Chris Bassitt Checks All the Boxes
If you were designing a pitcher to catch Anthopoulos’ eye, he would look like Chris Bassitt. He’s thrown over 155 innings every season since 2021, while pitching to a 3.66 ERA, 113 ERA+, for Oakland, the Mets, and in the last three seasons, in what’s generally considered a hitters’ ballpark, Toronto’s Rogers Center.
After having UCL replacement in 2016, Bassitt’s only injuries since 2020 are a fractured and lower back inflammation in late September last season. The back injury meant he wasn’t in the rotation for the postseason, but he threw 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball while striking out 10, coming out of the pen in the ALCS and World Series.
He projects as a solid fourth starter who offers value for the dollar on a short-term, two-year deal. Statcast puts Bassitt’s 46.5 GB% in the 79th percentile, his 29% hard-hit rate in the 80th percentile, and his 87.7 mph exit velo in the 85th percentile. Those stats should improve with the Braves’ infield defense backing him up.
That’s a wrap
Maybe Anthopoulos breaks the pattern and signs Suarez. Maybe he goes all in on Framber Valdez. Maybe Atlanta has finally shed the lack of respect they showed Kenshin Kawakami in 2010, and Tatsuya Imai signs with the Braves.
All of those things are possible, but if past history is any indication, Bassitt is the arm the Braves will end up signing.