Regardless of which side you fall on in the Freddie Freeman vs. Matt Olson debate, most Atlanta Braves fans can at least agree that Olson has been awesome since being traded to the Braves. Not only has Olson lived up to the substantial contract extension that Atlanta gave him immediately upon his arrival, but he has become the Braves' best hitter (most of the time) and a lineup cornerstone that is showing no signs of slowing down.
Where Olson has lagged a bit is with recognition at the national level. Most baseball fans think Olson is a really good hitter, but he is rarely mentioned as among the best hitters in baseball. Up until this point, the highest he has finished in any MVP race is fourth back in 2023, and that required him to hit 54 homers with a .993 OPS. At some point, Olson has to break through and get the attention he deserves soon, right?
At first glance, this season seems like a prime opportunity for Olson to make a real run at the NL MVP with 36 homers and close to a .900 OPS through 125 games. Unfortunately, even if Olson goes on a heater to close out the season, to be an MVP finalist in 2026 will require him to get some help elsewhere.
Matt Olson may be having an MVP-worthy season, but his competition in the NL is brutal this year
Olson does have some points in his favor in the MVP race this season. If we are looking specifically at the fWAR hitter leaderboard, for example, there are a couple of guys slightly ahead of Olson (JJ Wetherholt and Brice Turang) that get a lot of their value from defense that usually isn't widely rewarded by MVP voters. There is also Otto Lopez, who plays on a mediocre (at best) Marlins team that has little national exposure, and James Wood, who is currently out with an injury that will likely cost him the entire month of August. All of that helps Olson's cause.
Unfortunately, that is where the good news ends here. For starters, Pete Crow-Armstrong is not only the best defender in baseball right now or close to it, but is also having an insane offensive season. All of that is combining for PCA to potentially run away with the MVP race this year. There is also the ever-present shadow of Shohei Ohtani to consider. Ohtani isn't having the crazy season we are used to seeing out of him due to injury issues, but his total production still stacks up with anyone in baseball.
For Olson to overcome the odds and, at minimum, be named an MVP finalist, a few things simply have to happen. First, he has to play out of his mind the rest of the season. Given his 1.082 OPS so far in the month of August, we are on track there. The Braves also have to look like a top contender at the end of the season. The standings look promising there, but it would be very helpful if Atlanta finished the year on a high note.
More than that, though, Olson needs a handful of his top competitors to slow down over the next six weeks or so. Asking for Crow-Armstrong or Ohtani to crater is a big ask, but having Turang, Lopez, and Corbin Carroll fall off would do a lot of good to get Olson some more down-ballot votes. If that happens, he has a really good chance of being named an MVP finalist, and would have a VERY outside shot of winning the thing. If not, he could be on the outside looking in again.
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