There’s no denying the overall rough year that Matt Olson has had this year. Coming into August 12th, Matt has a career low in walk rate (9.2%), and wRC+ (102), and overall his worst year since 2020. This is especially frustrating after the magical 2023 campaign that saw Matt carry the Atlanta Braves offense at times thanks to career-bests in almost every category.
This performance has led to many frustrated fans that point back to Freddie Freeman, who is once again having a very strong year for the Los Angeles Dodgers and is outperforming Olson in just about every category outside of home runs. Even when you look at his advanced stats captured on Baseball Savant, while the hard-hit stats are still great, his expected batting average and slugging are not what you would hope for someone so important to the Braves lineup. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion as to what the Braves should have done, but let's look at some of the reasons why making the move for Matt Olson still makes sense despite this year.
Matt Olson drives in six runs as the Braves beat the Rockies 11-8! pic.twitter.com/p5dDoUQDPj
— Atlanta Braves Radio Network 🎙️ (@BravesRadioNet) August 11, 2024
Despite current struggles, the Matt Olson trade was a major win for the Atlanta Braves
Back in 2022, the Braves chose to move on from Freddie Freeman and obtain Matt Olson from the Oakland Athletics in a trade that would end up being a 5 player deal. Atlanta traded catcher Shea Langeliers, outfielder Cristian Pache, and pitchers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes for Matt. Shea, selected with the ninth pick in the 2019 draft, was considered one of the top catchers in the draft and has since manned the catching position for the Oakland Athletics, a position of strength for the Braves. Shea has hit .217/.278/.445 which is good for a 103 wRC+ which is solid for the catching position, but has struggled behind the plate - registering 56th out of 59th in catcher framing runs.
Cristian Pache, once considered an outfielder of the future for the Braves, has continued to struggle with the bat and is on his third team since he was traded to the Athletics. Ryan Cusick, the first-round pick back in 2021, has also struggled and has a 5.40 ERA on the season, spending most of 2024 in Double-A. Joey Estes, who was the wildcard in the trade, has had the most success having appeared in 16 games for the Athletics and has a 4.70 ERA and 1.0 fWAR. Overall, the package for Matt has performed just okay while Matt, especially when you look at 2023, has done well for the Braves.
What implications did this have on Atlanta's 40-man roster?
Shea, Pache, and Estes are all in the majors and Ryan Cusick is eligible for the Rule 5 draft. If they were still on the roster, all four players would be taking 40-man roster spots, creating a rather significant logjam of players.
You are potentially looking at a pair of pitchers who don’t fit your current roster, an outfielder who would be low on the depth chart, and a catcher who would need to take the bulk of games from Travis d'Arnaud, but they don’t have the track record or potential that Sean Murphy has. The trade allowed the Braves to acquire a premier talent and prevent significant 40-man issues.
Matt Olson versus Freddie Freeman contractually
Finally, we come to the age and contract situations. Freddie, signed through his age 37 season (2027) will be making $27M a year, with an additional $56M in deferred money that the Dodgers will pay out until he is 50 years old.
Matt on the other hand is signed through his age 35 (2029) season and will pay him $20M a year, which is a savings of $7M a year to go along with a very affordable $20M club option in 2030. You can project that Matt will eventually out-produce Freddie in the later years just based on the overall trajectory of the average MLB career as you push 35 years of age and onwards.
Overall, there’s no denying the sting that every Braves fan sees when viewing Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman’s stats side by side. But if you focus on the long-term aspects of the deal, as well as how the deal impacted the state of the roster, you can still remind yourself it was a win for both the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Oakland Athletics, however, came out on the shortest end of the draw.