It was just a month ago when Bryce Elder representing the Atlanta Braves at the 2026 All-Star Game wasn't a far fetched idea. Now it's starting to look like Elder might not finish the season in the rotation unless things change quickly.
On May 22, Elder completed six innings, allowing just one run to lower his ERA to 1.97, making it look like the adjustments he made were for real. Since then, it's been disastrous. Heading into Saturday night's game against the Giants, the righty had allowed 19 runs over his last 22.2 innings, including 14 runs over his last 10. That did not improve against the Giants.
Elder's streakiness is nothing new to Braves fans, as they watched a 2023 All-Star become one of the worst starters in MLB immediately following his selection. This time around, fans shouldn't expect a quick rebound either.
Bryce Elder's struggles should be concerning
For the first two months of the 2026 season, Elder was the Braves second-best starter. Through May 22, the righty had a 1.97 ERA, the seventh-lowest qualified ERA in MLB, while also having the fourth-most innings. While he had a large gap between his ERA and FIP, a 3.31 FIP wasn't concerning, as it was still one of the better marks in the league.
Since his May 22 start entering Saturday's start, however, Elder had the third-worst ERA in MLB among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched . His FIP was significantly better, ranking 39th, but was still above 5. Saturday was a perfect spot to bounce back, as he was facing a Giants club who came into the game tied for 26th in runs scored.
Unfortunately, there would be no bounce back. He allowed two homers to Rafael Devers, one of which was a three-run homer. His ERA for the season jumped to 4.01, while his FIP just barely missed the 4.00 mark, finishing the outing with 3.98 FIP for the season.
The most concerning part for Elder is his regression to what plagued him the past two-and-a-half seasons. Through his first 11 starts, he had only allowed 5 home runs in 68.2 innings. Since then, he's allowed seven homers in 30 innings.
Although he struck out four on Saturday, his strikeout-rate had been on the decline. Even with some bad luck on balls in play, the home runs are a recipe for disaster. From the 2023 All-Star break through the end of 2025, Elder had a 5.47 ERA and a 4.64 FIP. He had a 7.37 K/9 and a 1.34 HR/9.
During this stretch dating back to May 27, Elder has an 8.70 ERA and a 5.51 FIP. With Elder not missing bats and allowing more and more long balls, it's beginning to look like Elder's hot start to the 2026 season was more mirage than real.
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