In a vacuum, the conventional wisdom is that the Atlanta Braves should be trying to give their pitchers extra rest when they can. The baseball season is very long, so giving arms rest early on when opportunities arise should, in theory, help preserve them and keep them fresher towards the end of the season. There are certainly pros and cons to this approach, but it might not be one that they should employ with Bryce Elder at all.
Elder is such a frustrating pitcher. For the better part of two years, Elder was walking a tightrope in nearly every start and collectively raising the blood pressure of all Braves fans in the process. However, Elder put in a lot of work, developed a cutter thanks to help from Greg Maddux, and looked considerably better through the first couple months of 2026. However, it seems true that Elder has crashed back to earth over his last five starts, and the timing couldn't be much worse for Atlanta.
That said, there might be a novel solution, or at least part of one. In Elder's case, the Braves may actually want to make him MORE tired instead of giving him some extra rest. Just stick with us, here.
Bryce Elder may need to be more fatigued to turn his season around with the Braves
This thought was derived from a recent column by Braves beat writer Mark Bowman where he broke down some of the midseason storylines with the Braves. In the piece, he said, "Speaking of Elder, he’s like any other sinkerballer in that he’s more effective when his arm is a little fatigued." While this is an old axiom in baseball, it probably isn't one that applies to EVERY guy that throws a two-seam fastball. However, in Elder's case, it absolutely holds true and seems to be in the Braves' planning when it comes to his upcoming start against the Giants.
Bowman would correctly point out that Elder's ERA this season with four days rest sits at 2.70, a 3.20 ERA with five days rest, and a dreadful 7.88 ERA in starts where he got six or more days of rest. If you are thinking that this is just an anomaly in a small sample this year, his career numbers show a very similar story. In 37 starts in his career, Elder has a 3.58 ERA with 170 strikeouts in 216 innings. With five days' rest, his ERA jumps to 4.21 with 119 strikeouts in 154 innings. As for starts where Elder has gotten six or more days of rest, you are looking at a 5.68 ERA across 30 starts and 157 innings in 140 starts.
The idea here is that when a pitcher's arm is tired, his arm slot naturally tends to go into a better position for success with a sinker, and they tend to hit their spots more frequently. Moreover, it is less likely that a guy who isn't completely rested will try to blow pitches by hitters and do a better job of approaching in a way that tries to get soft contact. Again, one can't assume that this will work for every thrower of sinkers. However, with Elder, extra rest might be the last thing he needs.
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