While Matt Olson had the big highlight from the Atlanta Braves' win over the Mariners on Tuesday, it is undeniable that it was Bryce Elder who carried the Braves most of the way. Other than a two-run homer in the third inning, Elder completely shut down Seattle and ended the night after six innings with nine strikeouts. It was the latest chapter in what has been a remarkable turnaround for Elder this season.
Elder's performance this season has been a huge surprise. His performance in recent years pushed him into a sixth-starter sort of role, where he would get some starts, but get rotated in and out of the active roster as needed. There were times he looked good, and others where Braves fans would have preferred to see anyone else on the mound. Now, the list of arms Atlanta wants to see take the mound on any given night, more than Elder, may only be Chris Sale.
So how did we get here? We know that Elder has made some adjustments coming into the season, including the addition of a cutter that has been a really nice change of pace for him. However, if you look at the big picture, Elder's success can ultimately be boiled down to him avoiding barrels more by...getting less ground balls?
Bryce Elder has metamorphosed into a very different, but also eerily similar starter for the Braves
This is very counterintuitive. One of the things that Elder always had going for him was that he got a lot of ground balls. His slider, in particular, functioned less as a swing-and-miss pitch and more as his go-to way to induce weak contact. That Elder is seeing some of the best results of his career by dropping to the 51st percentile in terms of ground ball rate compared to the 79th percentile in 2025 is genuinely weird.
However, between the success of his new cutter and altering the shape of his slider a bit, that is kind of what has happened. Elder's ground ball rate has gone down, and his strikeout rate has marginally improved, but the biggest change has been in the barrel rate against him. In 2025, Elder's barrel rate was okay and resided in the 60th percentile. Fine, but not ideal for a groundball pitcher. This season, things are very different as his barrel rate has jumped to the 88th percentile.
Yes, missing more barrels by getting less ground balls is odd and doesn't make much sense, but that is where we are at with Elder. It is clear that a bunch of small adjustments, combined with significant changes to his pitch usage, are paying big dividends for him and the Braves right now. Whatever he is doing, just keep doing it. This is Elder's world now, and we are just living in it.
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