With Strider unavailable for at least a month, the Braves have four pitchers vying for two spots. Barring a bad spring, Grant Holmes penciled in for one of those openings, leaving Anderson, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Hurston Waldrep to duke it out for the last spot. I expect Anderson to win the job.
Anderson’s motion and arsenal make him the best choice
Anderson announced himself with a flourish in the 2020 postseason, throwing 16 1/3 shutout innings in his four outings before allowing two runs to the Dodgers. He opened the 2021 season in the starting rotation and headed to another strong season at the break.
From opening day until he went on the IL with shoulder inflammation in July, Anderson and Morton posted virtually the same record.
- Anderson posted a 9-8 record in 17 starts over 93 2/3 IP, with a 3.27 ERA, 3.39 FIP, opposing hitters connected for eight homers and batted 217/.288/.335/.623
- Morton posted a 9-8 record in his first 17 starts and 92 IP, posted a 3.91 ERA, 3.52 FIP, opposing hitters connected for nine homers, and batted 219/.305/.317/.621
- Morton allowed 40 earned runs, walked 31. and struck out 107
- Anderson allowed 34 earned runs, walked 34, and struck out 94.
Morton got results with a four-seam fastball touching 96 and 13 inches of arm-side run, backed by a knee-buckling curve, while Anderson relied on a 94mph fastball and his change.
On July 17, shoulder inflammation forced Anderson onto the IL; he didn’t return until August 28.
I’m Back…for a while
He struggled with the long ball when he returned but managed to limit the damage, pitching to a 3.62 ERA in six starts, and had another strong postseason, pitching to a 1.59 ERA (three runs in 17IP), holding the Brewers and Astros scoreless, and throwing seven strong innings against the Dodgers.
Hopes were high for 2022, but Anderson struggled coming out of spring training and never found his groove. The combination of his shoulder injury and pitching into October likely led to his struggles. Jason Schmidt told ESPN that shoulder injuries often lead to changes in mechanics that create stress on the elbow or other parts of the arm, so it’s likely the shoulder started the series of events that led to his UCL surgery.
Anderson Knows What He Has to Do
Anderson had a rough start on Sunday, but let’s not panic over that. It was his first game of the spring, and he showed signs that he’s moving in the right direction. He told The Athletic’s David O’Brien he understands the process.
"“I know the results are what’s going to get me on the team,” Anderson said. “So that definitely takes precedent, which is why I’m not overly thrilled with how it went. But I think I do have the perspective to look back on what I’ve experienced so far, and just kind of take the positives out of it.”"Ian Anderson Mar 5, 2023; North Port, Fl
Anderson says he expects to add another tick or two to his fastball velocity, but his metrics show that he must also get better at locating his pitches.
That’s a Wrap
The biggest thing Anderson has in his favor is his experience. He knows his fastball isn’t going to blow the best hitters away, but it has to consistently be good enough to make his offspeed pitches the weapon they were in 2021.
He doesn’t have to be an ace - Chris Sale and Spencer Strider will fill that role - and Spencer Schwellenbach has shown us he can be a three or 2B. All Anderson has to do is be himself. If he does that, the Braves are in good shape.