Vladimir Guerrero Jr. inked an insanely lucrative 14-year, $500 million deal with the Blue Jays on Sunday evening. A $35 million annual average value (AAV) is a huge chunk of change for a first baseman. The Atlanta Braves are lucky to have one of the league's best first basemen for a fraction of that price.
Guerrero Jr. is a four-time All-Star and is very good at baseball, but this deal would take him through 2039. He will be 40 years old at the start of that season. This is a huge risk for the Jays as there are no deferrals included. But it felt like a necessary decision with the free agents they've whiffed on in recent years.
This contract makes Matt Olson's deal look like a massive bargain, and it also sets the stage for them to potentially pursue one of Guerrero Jr.'s teammates in free agency next offseason.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s massive contract could help the Braves land Bo Bichette in free agency
Assuming the Blue Jays' money pit isn't limitless, Guerrero's deal could handcuff Toronto's ability to spend and keep shortstop Bo Bichette who becomes a free agent after this season. There's a clear fit for Bichette in Atlanta as the Braves are currently running Nick Allen out on a daily basis at the position. Allen has done a great job but he's still batting with just an 84 wRC+, but that looks spectacular next to Orlando Arcia's -0.2 wRC+.
Bichette is in the final year of his three-year, $33 million extension with the Blue Jays. Toronto traded for Andres Gimenez this offseason and he could immediately fill that void should Bichette leave as is widely expected. They also have a few budding prospects who could take over in the next couple of years.
Bichette seemed like he was on pace to be the next shortstop to receive a massive contract. However, a poor showing in 2024 may have curbed that opportunity. Injuries kept him down last season and he only played in 81 games with 16 doubles, four homers, 31 RBI, and a 71 wRC+.
That's the first season Bichette has carried a batting average lower than .290 in any season. He's been selected to the All-Star game twice and led the league in hits twice (191 in 2021 and 189 in 2022).
Bo Bichette literally hit this baseball out of the stadium ... pic.twitter.com/xXGujhV2u8
— MLB (@MLB) March 10, 2025
Bichette isn't as good as Arcia defensively, but that's something Atlanta may have to deal with if they want an offensive upgrade at shortstop. At the end of the day, overall production matters and right now, the shortstop position in Atlanta is lacking it (to put it kindly)
Bichette is off to a good start in 2025 with a .277 average, a .313 wOBA, a 103 wRC+, and an impressive 11.8 strikeout percentage. If he can stay healthy and return to his previous levels of production, he will be in a good position heading into free agency.
The most comparable contract we can examine for Bichette is the one Willy Adames received from the Giants. Adames signed a seven-year, $182 million contract with an AAV of $26 million which, given some of the deals we have seen handed out lately, seems pretty reasonable.
If Bichette matched that deal, he would be the highest-paid player on the Braves roster. Austin Riley is currently the highest-paid player at $22 million per season. Atlanta hasn't shown a willingness to sign long-term, big money contracts, and the organization didn't spend much last offseason. It is unclear how far they are actually willing to go as they haven't really been forced into that position.
Bichette is a good fit for the team; it will just come down to whether he wants to come to Atlanta and whether the Braves are willing to spend the money necessary to land him.