Atlanta Braves fans are in rare form right now after the team's brutal start to the 2025 season. Blame is being thrown in all directions with some even wanting Liberty Media to sell the team or for the roster to be ripped down to the studs and rebuilt. Overreactions to slumps or losing streaks is hardly new, but this has been pretty wild even by that standard.
One popular scapegoat has been first baseman Matt Olson. Coming off a 2024 season that was considered to be a down year for him where he only managed a .247/.333/.457 line with 29 homers, Olson has posted a reasonable, but unexciting .828 OPS through his first nine games in 2025. For a guy that is among the Braves' best paid players, that production isn't going to cut it for a large portion of fans.
However, those same fans should be feeling a bit better about Olson and his deal now that the Blue Jays had to pay up to keep Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the fold.
Matt Olson's deal with the Braves looks like a bargain compared to what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. just got
In an average year, Olson and Guerrero Jr. are actually pretty comparable hitters in terms of overall production. Over the last three seasons, Guerrero Jr. has hit for better average and gotten on base more, but Olson has the better power numbers and has more value defensively. Vladdy Jr. is of course younger which is important when thinking about the value of an extension, but the two players have present day value that is pretty close all things considered.
When Olson signed his eight year, $168 million extension with the Braves right before the 2022 season, it was seen as a pretty decent value for Atlanta and that was before he made a run at NL MVP in 2023 that was thwarted by transcendent seasons from Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts. Now that the asking price for a younger, but similar player is over $35 million a year into Guerrero Jr.'s 40's, it looks like a bargain even if Olson remains a 4-ish WAR player the rest of the way.
At $22 million a year through 2029 and with a club option year in 2030, Olson is certainly not cheap and there are going to be fans that will accept nothing less than a MVP-level season from him every year because of it. However, the economic landscape of MLB, especially after Guerrero Jr.'s extension, shows that even if Olson isn't "that guy", the Braves still did well to lock him up for what they did.