In December, I wrote that if history gives us a clue to the pitcher the Atlanta Braves want, Chris Bassitt will soon be a Brave. As the offseason wore on and other teams made their moves without a Bassitt signing, the picture became less and less clear.
The Braves could grab Zac Gallen, but his downward trend and the qualifying offer seem to take him off the board. Zack Littell’s profile is that of an innings-eater who pitches well enough with the Rays, but away from Tampa and their unique way of handling pitchers, he doesn’t look as good. Lucas Giolito’s season ended with a flexor tendon issue, and Max Scherzer should wear one of those everything hurts T-shirts. Bassitt still looks the likely choice for a two-year deal, but Justin Verlander may be a better fit.
Making the case for the Braves signing Justin Verlander
Earlier this week, Eric wrote that Verlander was a 43-year-old with declining stuff and some relatively recent injury issues. Yep, he’s 43, and he’s no longer throwing 97 mph heaters, but let’s look at the rest of that analysis.
Verlander's injuries haven't taken too much of a toll (yet)
Aside from a calf strain in 2022, he lost time to shoulder inflammation in 2023, not uncommon in pitchers returning from UCL surgery, a neck strain in 2024, and lost a month to a right pectoral strain last season. Before the pec-strain, he pitched to a 4.33 in 10 starts.
Pitchers who remain starters into their 40's, such as Nolan Ryan, have good mechanics and stay in great shape. Verlander’s mechanics now look exactly like they did in his heyday, and he looks the same now as he did in 2019, making him the kind of pitcher who will continue to pitch well.
After returning from that injury, Verlander threw 100 innings over 19 starts without missing a turn, while pitching to a 3.60 ERA, 3.34 FIP, striking out 96 and walking 31, including one intentional walk, despite giving up 12 runs in seven +IP in two starts. Opposing batters posted a .262/.320/.397/.717 line in those starts.
Verlander's stuff isn't what it once was, but that is okay
Verlander’s fastball isn’t as crisp as it once was, and his 93.9 mph fastball was lower than the league average 95 mph heater in 2025, but 86 of the 173 fastballs he threw in his last 19 starts were at or above league average, and 20% were 95 mph or better.
The biggest difference from his pre-surgery days is the drop in spin rate that made his curve less effective, but Charlie Morton showed that spin rate can be improved in the pitching lab, and Verlander has said he wants to pitch. I’m betting he won’t sign with anyone unless he’s sure he can pitch well.
Comparing Justin Verlander and Chris Bassitt
The Braves need a fifth starter who will take the ball 30 times, give at least 150 innings at a league-average ERA and keep them in the game on a one or two-year deal, with Bassitt the one most here agree is the most likely option. Using the final 19-games of the year to match to keep the sample size the same, here’s how Velander and Bassitt match up.
Stats | Verlander | Bassitt |
|---|---|---|
IP | 100 | 97 |
Hits/Game | 5.4 | 4.9 |
Runs/Game | 2.4 | 2.6 |
Earned Runs/Game | 2.1 | 2.4 |
Earned Runs | 40 | 46 |
Home Runs | 8 | 13 |
Walks | 31 | 35 |
Strikeouts | 96 | 91 |
ERA | 3.49 | 4.27 |
FIP | 3.34 | 4.39 |
The gap isn't big, but numbers clearly favor Verlander.
That’s a Wrap
Everything depends on the health of the pitcher. I’ve already recounted Verlander’s recent injuries. Bassitt is six years younger than Verlander, entering his tenth season after his UCL replacement surgery in 2016, and lost 19 days to lower back inflammation in 2026. Does that make him less likely to have a significant injury issue?
Verlander’s postseason experience and the potential help he could offer the Braves’ young pitchers, I’m thinking about Spencer Strider as he starts a new season, are invaluable. I’d sign him for things it’s impossible to measure.