On Wednesday, the Atlanta Braves and Ronald Acuña Jr. took a big step towards squashing this truly silly drama between Acuña Jr. and manager Brian Snitker. Everyone let things die down, Acuña Jr. came back to Atlanta and apologized to everyone directly, and now the Braves are ready to move on. While it was unfortunate that this moment of frustration and disagreement got aired out in public, it did yield a very interesting nugget about his future from the 2023 NL MVP.
When Acuña Jr. was talking about how frustrated he was being away from his teammates rehabbing from yet another major surgery while the Braves were struggling earlier in the season. However, he also went on to say, "And I’ve always just felt such a strong sense of pride of being a member of this organization. I want to be here my whole career.”
This isn't a new sentiment from Acuña Jr. as he talked before the 2024 season about his very strong desire to stay with the Braves "for life" and being willing to sign a contract extension to make that happen. As to what such an extension would even look like, that is much tougher to wrap one's head around.
Here is what a Ronald Acuña Jr. extension could look like
Before last season and coming off a 40/70 season, Acuña Jr. had a real argument for $35-40 million a year with his next contract with the length being the biggest variable. He wasn't ever going to get close to Juan Soto's salary number just because of the differences in age. Acuña Jr. already signed one extension (albeit a very cheap one) and assuming the Braves would want at least to see how he bounces back this season before entertaining an extension, that means he would be at least 28 and would have three years at $17 million a year of team control (including club options for 2027 and 2028) left on his current deal.
There are a few other factors to consider as well. One is Acuña Jr. now has two major knee surgeries on his ledger which makes it likely that his dynamic speed isn't going to age as well into his 30's which certainly matters when thinking about future value. Atlanta has also never given a player more that $22 million AAV on a multi-year deal (they did give Josh Donaldson $23 million on a one year deal) and they basically do not hand out deals longer than five years guaranteed. The Braves would likely be willing to exceed that threshold (and would definitely have to) to keep Acuña Jr., but it is worth remembering that the Braves will spend, but they like to spread their money around.
Assuming the next CBA continues to increase the competitive balance tax threshold (fire Tony Clark if that doesn't happen or if a salary cap gets installed) and the two sides talk seriously about an extension from 2027 (his first option year) to help lessen the luxury tax hit, it feels like $30 million a year for five years with a club option for a sixth year may be the best Atlanta is willing to do. We can add a healthy $10 million buyout for that last option year to sweeten the deal, it feels like five years with $160 million guaranteed with a team option that could push it to $180 million.
That will seem low to a lot of people and before his latest injury, those people would be absolutely right. However, there is a big difference between a guy having one major injury and following it up with two MVP-level seasons versus Acuña Jr.'s case where he has two major injuries and much more murky future production albeit with insane upside.
The Braves are going to protect themselves, but they also would want to keep him. This sort of deal may not be enough to keep Acuña Jr., but it may be the best the Braves are willing to do and it at least helps that he wants to stay and doesn't seem the least bit bothered that he has been underpaid for years.