They probably didn't know it at the time, but the Atlanta Braves were trendsetters when they went through and extended most of their young core. Some of those extensions aged pretty well (Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris II) despite some hiccups, while others like Austin Riley and Sean Murphy have not. However, the Reds just gave Chase Burns an extension that looks eerily familiar to one the Braves handed out that they may want back right now.
At the time, giving Spencer Strider an extension seemed like a terrific idea. While giving a rookie pitcher a six-year, $75 million extension comes with a lot of risk, Strider had just made a spirited run at NL Rookie of the Year, and it looked like he would be a perennial Cy Young candidate.
However, things have gone sideways for Strider in recent years, and Cincinnati may want to prepare for some of the same given the similarities in the profiles of the two young pitchers.
Reds should have used Braves' extension to Spencer Strider as a cautionary tale
Here is the fundamental issue: pitchers, and especially power pitchers, are walking injury risks. The laws of physics and the human arm are not friends, and the guys that are dialing everything up to maximize velocity are the ones that are testing their biological limits far more often than any other position on the field. Strider was the quintessential power pitcher when he signed his extension, and Burns, who averages 97.8 mph with his fastball and 90.5 mph with his slider, may be an even more extreme example.
Where Burns does have an edge is that Strider came into the big leagues with an injury history. He needed Tommy John surgery while in college, and that surgery resulted in a bone chip that required another surgery last year to remove said chip from his UCL and brace it. Burns doesn't have a major surgery on his ledger and does have a more prototypical starter's build, but it is worth mentioning that he did miss time with an elbow flexor injury last year.
One hopes Burns' extension does work out, because it is definitely true that Reds fans could use some good news for a change. However, as the Braves have found out with Strider so far, giving out these kinds of extensions to young power arms is anything but a sure thing.
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