As the calendar turned to the 2020s, it seemed like Alex Anthopoulos had cracked the code. Despite being one of the most lucrative franchises in baseball, the Braves invested in internal talent, signing young players to long-term, team-friendly deals. The economic tides in baseball seem to be changing, though, and the Braves will need to adapt.
The core that won the 2021 World Series had the 12th-highest payroll in baseball thanks in large part to the extensions signed by Freddie Freeman ($16.875 million AAV), Ronald Acuña Jr. ($12.5 million AAV), and Ozzie Albies ($5 million AAV). Last year’s squad featured just three free-agent signings among the team’s top 10 highest-paid players. The projected starting nine, including No. 1 starter Spencer Strider, has just two positions not manned by a player on an extension (shortstop and left field). This offseason, full of high-price signings, could change everything for Atlanta.
The days of team-friendly deals may be over for the Braves
Take Tarik Skubal, for instance. He’s the kind of player that, had he been part of the Braves’ organization, Atlanta would have attempted to sign to a long-term contract either before or during his arbitration years. He may not even have been expensive; compared to Strider, who signed an extension during his rookie year, Skubal started his career slowly. The Tigers, though, didn’t take this approach and now are mired in trade talks and what could be an ugly arbitration process.
If this offseason proved anything, it’s that short-term, high-AAV deals are in. The players want to get paid; the teams want to get their man. The Braves, for example, have signed just two free agents to deals longer than one year this offseason. Less than 20 players have signed a deal that spans more than two seasons this winter.
The Braves are running out of homegrown talent in the minors to continue with this system. There isn't a Michael Harris II, much less an Acuña, ready to break out and help the team for the next half dozen years. Without those players, who may be enticed to sign team-friendly long-term deals, Anthopoulos may need to embrace the market.