Relying on a resurgent Bryce Elder is far from the position Braves fans hoped to occupy in late February. Yet with each passing day, that increasingly appears to be the reality. Following rotation injuries to Spencer Strider and Hurston Waldrep, the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation has grown considerably more uncertain.
Amid this uncertainty, Elder, Joey Wentz, and non-roster invitees Martin Perez and Carlos Carrasco are the underwhelming candidates vying for a spot in the Opening Day rotation. Prospects JR Ritchie and Didier Fuentes could play a role with strong spring performances, but expectations are that both will begin the season in Triple-A.
After considering all of these factors, it becomes increasingly clear that Elder appears to be the frontrunner for the final spot in the Braves’ rotation. Sources close to the organization acknowledge this, and a recent article by beat writer Mark Bowman indicates that while some are enthusiastic about another season with Elder, others may be more cautious in their expectations.
Bryce Elder has a 5.47 ERA since the middle of 2023. The idea you don’t need a starter because he’s out of options is mind numbing
— Scott Coleman (@scottcoleman55) February 2, 2026
Talk of Bryce Elder's velocity increase shouldn't be enough to win Braves' fans over
Alex Anthopoulos faced criticism this offseason for declining to add another established Major League starting pitcher to the roster. However, that approach may have been justified according to some media members, as the reasons behind Elder’s strong late-2025 performance have become clearer.
Elder saw an uptick in velocity over his final seven starts of 2025, which contributed to a 2.82 ERA during that stretch. While his four-seam fastball increased from 91.5 mph in 2024 to 93.7 mph in those appearances—a development that bodes well for the Texas native’s effectiveness—it remains premature to place full confidence in sustained success.
According to Mark Bowman, Elder’s velocity boost followed a consultation with Bob Keyes, a pitching and hitting biomechanics expert. However, this newfound velocity should not overshadow the -1.1 bWAR he recorded over the past two seasons.
There is a risk of falling into recency bias, overlooking the broader body of evidence. While pitchers often reinvent themselves and sometimes experience genuine “light-bulb” moments, attributing Elder’s modest velocity uptick to such a breakthrough feels premature and potentially misleading.
In conclusion, Elder’s late-2025 surge and improved velocity are promising, but his inconsistency cannot be ignored. The Braves are once again betting on his potential, yet relying on Elder has backfired before—and this time, it may be a mistake too costly to recover from.