Promising Braves 2025 draft pick will have to reverse an unfortunate trend

Drafting prospects is a tough task to handle, and the Atlanta Braves are usually one of the best at finding value. However, some players need a bit more investment to sign after being drafted. Atlanta hasn't had the best luck when it comes to signing players over their slot value.

Essenburg was drafted 157th overall in the fifth round of the 2025 MLB Draft. The slot value for that pick was $438,600. However, the outfielder signed well over slot at $1,197,500. Essenburg also pitched and pitched well, but was announced as a hitter once drafted by Atlanta. The 19-year-old has excellent bat speed and power potential. Unfortunately, overslot picks haven't always performed well for the Braves, especially in recent years.

Conor Essenburg is going to have to buck some unfortunate recent Braves trends when it comes to overslot draft picks

Now, each draft pick is different and players succeed or fail due to so many variables that it is hard to draw too many conclusions. However, there is no denying that Atlanta has not had a top of luck (so far) the last few years when it comes to overslot picks. Just take a look at the overslot picks since 2021

2025:

Briggs McKenzie, 4th round (127), $3 million (pick value $588,900)

Conor Essenburg, 5th round (157), $1.2 million (pick value $438,600)

2024:

Nick Montgomery, 5th round (161), $997,500 (pick value $403,400)

Ethan Bagwell, 6th round (191), $822,500 (pick value $312,800)

2023:

Drue Hackenberg, 2nd round (59), $2 million (pick value $1.05 million)

Garrett Baumann, 4th round (126), $747,500 (pick value $521,800)

Isaiah Drake, 5th round (162), $747,500 (pick value $367,500)

Lucas Braun, 6th round (189), $347,500 (pick value $292,700)

2022:

JR Ritchie, 1st round CB-A (35), $2.40 million ($2.20 million)

Cole Phillips, 2nd round (57), $1.50 million ($1.31 million)

Nacho Alvarez Jr., 5th round (155), $497,500 (pick value $357,400)

Seth Keller, 6th round (185), $697,500 (pick value $275,100)

Adam Maier, 7th round (215), $1.20 million (pick value $215,400)

2021:

Justyn-Henry Malloy, 6th round (187), $297,500 (pick value $257,400)

AJ Smith-Shawver 7th round (217), $997,500 (pick value $201,600)

Tyler Collins, 8th round (247), $447,500 (pick value $166,100)

Some of the players who signed over slot were simply not good for the Braves. A couple of examples of this are Nick Montgomery and Justyn-Henry Malloy. Smith-Shawver has shown a lot of potential, but he's not been able to stay healthy. He's pitched just 74 innings between 2023 and 2025. His 3.77 ERA is pretty good considering how young he is, but his struggles with command plagued him with a lot of walks. This is the risk teams take.

Montgomery hasn't really performed well yet with a .170/.272/.252 slash line in 2025. He had five homers, six doubles, 35 RBI, 42 walks, and a whopping 119 strikeouts. He'll need to improve on the swing and miss to make his almost $1 million investment worth it. Malloy was traded to the Tigers for Joe Jimenez after the 2022 season. The Braves happily reaped the benefits from that trade before Jimenez's recent injury struggles. Malloy wasn't too far over his slot value, so not too egregious a decision there.

However, Essenburg, who is Atlanta's ninth-best prospect, has the opportunity to change that trend. He's young and hasn't gotten any time in professional baseball yet. So, fans will get their first look at him in 2026.

Atlanta gave him a lot more than expected to ensure he signed with them. He had a chance to play as a two-way player in college. He is aggressive at the plate, which is good for power potential, and he's decent in the field with great arm strength.

Essenburg could bloom similarly to other Braves like Austin Riley and Michael Harris II. Both were considered pitchers by other teams, but Atlanta saw their potential to be great hitters and decided to take a chance on them. Hopefully, this is a sign of great things to come for Essenburg.