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Predicting the Braves' September record and whether or not they can secure first-round bye

Can the Braves reclaim their NL East throne?
Aug 29, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Walt Weiss (22) reacts with Mauricio Dubon (14) after Dubon scored a run against the Colorado Rockies during the eighth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Aug 29, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Walt Weiss (22) reacts with Mauricio Dubon (14) after Dubon scored a run against the Colorado Rockies during the eighth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Winners of seven straight games, the Atlanta Braves will enter September with all the momentum fans could ask for. Both the Braves and Phillies are 8-2 over their last ten games, so the NL East lead remains five games for Atlanta as we enter the stretch run.

Once the Braves play their makeup game against San Francisco on Monday night, their attention will turn toward their brutal September schedule. The final month of the regular season is highlighted by seven division-deciding games against the Phillies over 10 days. Will Atlanta's five game division lead hold up over the final month? Can Atlanta finish strong and secure one of the National League's first round playoff byes? Let's take a momentum to answer both of those questions.

Prediciting the Braves final record and where they finish the regular season

At minimum, the Braves will enter September with at least 82 wins, already eclipsing what they accomplished in 2025. The Braves play 24 games in September, and with their current cushion in the NL East, you figure winning at least half of their remaining games would clinch the NL East. Of course, that presumes the Phillies don't go scorched earth during the final month of the season, and that the Braves win at least a few of the seven remaining games between the two NL East foes.

Atlanta fans do not need any reminders of what a late-season collapse can look like, so let's hope the Braves get off to a strong September start against an inferior Nationals squad. While the Braves have a daunting stretch in the middle of the month, the competition eases up with series against the Astros, Reds, and Marlins to close out the year.

Considering all of the opponents and Atlanta's first NL East crown since 2023 on the line, a 14-10 September record is our prediction, and one that should be good enough to get the job done. Assuming the Braves beat the Giants on Monday, 14 wins in September would put the Braves at 97 wins for the season. We think 97 wins should be more than enough to win the NL East, but is it enough to secure a top two seed in the National League?

As of right now, the Braves have the same record as the Dodgers; because Atlanta won the season series, they currently hold the two seed in the National League. Sadly, the Dodgers' September schedule is one of the easiest in baseball, so 97 wins might not be enough to stay above L.A. in the standings. Perhaps the return of Robert Suarez would be enough to help Atlanta finish above L.A. or Milwaukee and avoid playing in the dreaded wild card round.

Regardless, the Dodgers get to play multiple series against Cincinnati and San Francisco next month. However, they still have not looked great over the last couple of weeks. Sometimes teams already eliminated can put up the toughest fight, and our prediction has the Braves getting a bit of help so that Atlanta finishes with an identical record to LA. This would secure Atlanta the NL's second seed and showcase why it is important to win those head-to-head season series.

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