The Braves are in a race for the last wildcard spot right now, so it might feel weird to be talking about 2025 already, but as any general manager would probably tell you, if you aren't thinking about the next season right now, you are probably already behind.
There is no doubt that Alex Anthopoulos is already thinking about the offseason ahead as it relates to his starting rotation, so let's talk about the precarious situation coming up next season.
The Braves' rotation has saved them this year, as without three newcomers adding to the mix including Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwellenbach, they would be in a world of hurt right now. Even with the stellar performance of the entire pitching staff, bullpen included, which has the second-best ERA in baseball at 3.58, the Braves are still one loss and one New York Mets win from being currently out of the playoffs with less than a month to play.
That speaks to the massive underperformance (and injuries) within the offense, but that's not what this article is about. That rant can be saved for another time.
How will the Atlanta Braves rotation look in 2025?
As we enter the tail end of the 2024 season, Max Fried and Charlie Morton could be playing out their last days as Atlanta Braves. With both set to hit the free agent market in a few months, there is a chance, and in some minds a good one, that neither could be back for the 2025 season.
Starting with the most likely to depart, Charlie Morton. Morton is currently the fifth-best pitcher in the starting rotation, and really there is no debate about it.
Despite the lack of media coverage on Spencer Schwellenbach, he has cemented himself as a starter for this season and the next and has been one of the best rookies in the entire MLB. He sports a 3.78 ERA with 107 strikeouts in 97.2 innings. In his last 10 starts, he has a 2.57 ERA, one that if he had been able to maintain over the whole season, would have put him solidly in rookie of the year frontrunner status.
Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez, both earning All-Star nods along with Fried have been the one and two of this rotation all season.
Sale, after throwing all of 150 innings in the last four years leading up to this season, miraculously leads the team with 166.2 innings and is the frontrunner for NL Cy Young with a 2.38 ERA and 16 wins, both MLB-bests.
Lopez isn't far behind, as though injuries have slowed him down to just 127.2 innings, which doesn't qualify him to lead the league with his impressive 2.04 ERA, he has been lights out when he's been on the mound.
Fried is arguably the third-best arm in the rotation right now, but there is an argument to be made for Schwellenbach over him. We'll get to Fried though in a second.
Morton's 4.24 ERA is the rotation's worst by a long shot, though he's second on the team with 142.1 innings. He's been valuable for the Braves, no doubt, but heading into 2025, it'll be his age-41 season and if he does want to pitch another year, it'll probably be more than the Braves are willing to pay for a fifth starter.
There is a chance that Fried comes back, as was so well put by Fansided's John Buhler at the end of August. His value has gone down with his worst ERA (3.35) since the 2019 season, which may make him more attainable for the Braves if he and his agents are willing to settle for less than they originally thought they'd get. The injury concerns could also drive down his value.
There is also a chance that someone could bite on a huge, long-term contract, a risk that could pay off for someone like the Dodgers, Mets, or Yankees who are willing to shell out that kind of long-term money.
In any case, we'll be taking the latter scenario, one where, with the return of Spencer Strider, the Braves will be in need of one more arm to fill the rotation.
Plausible Braves options from other teams that could take the last spot in the rotation
John Means
John Means is a scary signing to make. He just underwent his second Tommy John surgery since 2022, and entering the 2025 season will have pitched a whopping total of 44.1 innings.
But in those innings and eight starts, he has an ERA of 2.64. If you can get past the clear injury concerns, it's easy to see why this could be a great pickup for the Braves. Over three years on bad Orioles teams from 2019-2021, he won 20 games and had an ERA of just under four. He's a lefty, so replacing Fried would make sense, and he feels like a player that the Braves could remake, so long as the injury bug stays away.
The two surgeries will obviously drive his value down, and will probably mean the Orioles are ready to let him test the market, meaning the Braves could get him fairly cheap. And like Sale coming in this year, there wouldn't be much pressure to succeed right away in the fifth spot in the rotation.
Jack Flaherty
With the way Jack Flaherty has pitched this season, a revival after three seasons of above-4.00 ERA pitching from 2020-2023, the Dodgers might pony up some money to sign him back.
In 2024, he's thrown 140.2 innings and has a 3.01 ERA with 174 strikeouts and just 29 walks. The Tigers shipped him off to the Dodgers at the deadline and it was a great trade by the Dodgers. He's 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA in six starts for them so far.
But in the case that he doesn't sign back with the Dodgers, the Braves would be a solid landing spot.
Even with his stellar showing in 2024, there might be a chance he falls into the Braves' price range and he would be a great fit in the rotation.
Chris Bassitt
This one would require a trade with the Blue Jays in the offseason, and though rumors were flying that Bassitt could be dealt at the deadline, he was held on to.
Toronto did sell off some players at the deadline and the sale might continue in the offseason.
Bassitt is having the worst statistical season of his big league career. With an ERA below four in every full season, he's pitched since 2015, Bassitt sits with a 4.30 ERA in 157 innings this season.
He's not a glamour pickup at all, but he has shown spots of being an all-star-level pitcher. He was great in his one with with the Mets, finishing with a 15-9 record and a 3.42 ERA in 2022. He had a 2.29 ERA in 63 innings in the shortened 2020 season with the Athletics, then followed that up with an all-star selection and a 3.15 ERA in 2021.
He'll be 36 in 2025, which isn't great, but even with his age, he's eaten innings. He's at 157 this year and last year with Toronto, he threw 200. The Braves could get him relatively on the cheap, and he'd be a great fit both in the clubhouse and on the mound.
I think the last spot will go to John Means. Flaherty may be the best overall option, but Means will be the best choice, given the value the Braves can get him at.
If he doesn't work out, the Braves have plenty of prospects that are raring to give it a go.