Atlanta Braves starter Charlie Morton has been one of the worst-qualified ptichers in MLB this season. With only 0.9 fWAR, there are six pitchers with an fWAR worse than Morton's. His 4.24 ERA ranks only slightly better at 14th in MLB.
On the surface, the 40-year-old's performance seems like it would be just one more disappointment in the long list of disappointments for the 2024 Braves. However, Morton's reliability has actually played a huge role in keeping the team afloat. The key is qualifying.
Why Charlie Morton's 2024 has been incredibly valuable to the Atlanta Braves
There is a significant difference between being one of the worst qualifying pitchers in baseball and being one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Qualifying pitchers must have one inning pitched for every game their team plays, which is 162 innings in a regular season for the majority of pitchers.
In 2024, there have been 355 pitchers who have started an MLB game. Of those pitchers, only 17.7% have pitched enough innings this year to qualify (63 total pitchers). Doing the math, that means that each team only averages two qualified starters per team.
Some teams have been incredibly fortunate, like the Mariners and Royals, who both have four qualified starters. Others, like the Rays, don't have a single starter with the minimum number of innings.
Coming into the season, Morton was expected to be the fourth starter, slotting in behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Chris Sale. Even with the season-ending injury to Strider in April, that role hasn't changed thanks to Reynaldo Lopez's emergence, and it could be argued that with the rise of Spencer Schwellenbach, his role has actually been pushed back to be the fifth starter on the team.
With that in mind, let's re-examine Charlie Morton's 2024.
As the Braves fifth starter, he's provided more innings than 82.3% of MLB starters in the majors. Of starters who have thrown at least 50 innings, Morton's 4.24 ERA ranks better than 68 starters.
Here are just a few starters on teams with playoff aspirations:
- Jordan Montgomery (ARI) - 6.26 ERA in 102 innings
- Taijuan Walker (PHI)- 6.48 ERA in 73.2 innings
- Walker Buehler (LAD) - 5.67 ERA in 54 innings
- Carlos Carrasco (CLE) - 5.64 ERA in 103.2 innings
Starting pitching is at a premium. While teams like the Giants and Tigers each have one excellent starter, they're struggling to stay in the postseason race because no one else on the club can effectively provide the innings or limit runs.
By anchoring the final spot in the rotation, Morton has been able to keep the team competitive all the way through the rotation, especially for a team whose offense has struggled immensely.
Before the emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach and during Max Fried and Reynaldo Lopez's IL stints, the Braves eight different starters.
Here's how they fared in their starts:
- Bryce Elder - 6.52 ERA in 49.2 innings
- Grant Holmes - 4.57 ERA in 21.2 innings
- Darius Vines - 4.66 ERA in 9.2 innings
- Ray Kerr - 9.39 ERA in 7.2 innings
- Allan Winans - 15.26 ERA in 7.2 innings
- Hurston Waldrep 16.71 ERA in 7 innings
- AJ Smith Shawver - 0.00 ERA in 4.1 innings
In these 23 starts, the Braves went 7-16. In games started by Morton this season, the Braves have been an even .500.
In what could be his final MLB season, Morton hasn't been an above-average pitcher, but his role as a fifth starter who can take the mound every fifth day and give the Braves a chance to win shouldn't be neglected, especially considering the state of the Braves offense, and the alternative rollercoaster fifth starters have been around the league.
And thanks to his reliability both this season as well as earlier in his career, Morton's even managed to achieve one of the most impressive career milestones in baseball this season.