It's time to wonder if the Braves are simply a bad team without Strider and Acuña Jr.
Losing your best players will hurt any team, but it felt like the Braves were better equipped to handle this tough situation more so than others. Has this past month of poor baseball proven that thought to be naive?
Things couldn't be much worse right now for the Atlanta Braves. You may think that's a crazy statement for a team with a 35-28 record. However, when you lose three out of four games to a rebuilding Washington Nationals ball club TWICE in two weeks, you can start to see where the sad vibes come from.
It's likely you'd have to go all the way back to July of 2021 when the mood was this blue in Braves country. Today, the Braves hope to find a spark and recapture some of the swagger they have carried for the last two-plus years.
As of right now, Atlanta sits nine games back of the NL East leading Philadelphia Phillies. With each frustrating game that passes, Braves country feel more and more confused. Since April 27th the team is 17-22 with a -17 run differential. For a team with juggernaut expectations entering the season, a long stretch of bad baseball was never thought to be possible.
That begs the question, "Are the Braves simply not as good as we thought they were going to be?" There are many layers to how we got here, and even more when trying to answer that question. Let's take a moment to break them down and come to some sort of conclusion.
Injuries have taken a toll
We get that injuries happen to all 30 MLB teams, so we're not going to pin all the Braves problems in this section alone. However, no team in baseball can say they have had players this impactful get hit with devastating injuries. In fact, in a recent article from The Athletic (subscription required) it was revealed that no team has lost the reigning MVP and a 20-game winner in the same season for this extended length of time EVER.
That of course is the case with the 2024 Braves, who will play over 100 games without superstars Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider. Those two big losses are enough to hamper any team for a stretch.
Then you couple those big losses with the fact that primary catcher Sean Murphy missed essentially two months, and middle of the order bat Austin Riley was sidelined for a couple weeks as well.
On top of that, Atlanta has seen several bullpen arms spend time on the injured list, and their top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver get sidelined with a grade two oblique strain after one start. All of those injuries have certainly contributed to the current state of the Atlanta Braves.
Some guys had career years in 2023
One big reason the Braves aren't as good as we expected them to be is simply because of the season in which they are coming off of. They became the first team with a slugging percentage of .500 and tied the MLB record for home runs in a season. Whenever you set multiple team offensive records, and bring back essentially the same guys it's easy to expect the same results.
Sadly, those results have been far from the same in 2024. But quite frankly 2023 was more of the outlier than this season. Many Braves hitters have pretty much just came back down to earth this season.
For example, Orlando Arica enjoyed career highs in home runs, slugging percentage, and wRC+ in seasons with at least 250 plate appearances. This season Arcia has reverted back to his career offensive numbers and ranks in the lowest percentile in Batting Run Value according to Baseball Savant.
To a lesser extent this is the case for one of the Braves main thumpers as well. Matt Olson finished fourth in NL MVP voting last year, and led all of baseball in home runs. This season Olson has a .239/.323/.427 slash line, and has seen his slugging percentage drop nearly .200 points off of last years pace.
I'm not saying Olson is a bad hitter, but instead perhaps last season was one of those were everything went right for the Braves first baseman. Thus is the case with numerous Atlanta Braves hitters in 2024 as you can imagine. However, regardless of the regression from some of these players, luck hasn't been so kind to the Braves either...
The Braves have been very unlucky
The maddening thing about baseball is that you can do everything right and still not be rewarded. Hitting in particular can drive you crazy if you continuously run into tough luck. No team in baseball has been more unlucky than the Atlanta Braves.
The Braves lean into the philosophy of trying to hit the baseball hard as often as possible. It's a sound philosophy considering hitting the ball harder has a direct correlation to accumulating more hits. However, in 2024 the Braves have seen those hard-hit balls converted into outs at an alarming rate.
Entering the weekend, the Braves were sixth in baseball in total barrels. However, 36% of those barreled baseballs have found the glove of the opposing team. For comparison, just 23% of their barrels from last season were converted into outs.
On the flip side of that, Braves pitchers have seen the least amount of barrels converted into outs. In particular, Matt Olson and Austin Riley have been two of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. Both sit in at least the 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage.
But to be fair, this isn't just a Braves problem. Offense is down across the league, and baseballs just aren't traveling as far as we've become accustom to.
I'm no conspiracy theorist, however....
— CJ (@CJNitkowski) June 8, 2024
Braves barrels (98+ EV, 26-30 degrees launch angle) are traveling on average 15 feet less than they were a year ago.
The entire league has only lost 6 feet. 🤔
Narrator: "He is absolutely a conspiracy theorist." pic.twitter.com/d0OjEB2Xaq
We know the history Major League Baseball has with changing the baseballs, so the dead baseball type things can never be ruled out. However, as the summer months roll in and the year rolls on these luck-based results tend to balance themselves out. If it takes broken bat infield knocks, and bloopers that find outfield grass to get the Braves offense going then so be it.
The Braves aren't who we thought they were...but they're still good
In conclusion, maybe the Braves have simply taken a step down from the offensive powerhouse they were last season. That's ok! They still are a good baseball team. Despite the loss of Strider, the starting pitching will keep them in plenty of ball games. The bullpen is about as deep as you'll find in baseball.
We're seeing the emotion and passion to fix the offense from guys like Jarred Kelenic and Marcell Ozuna. It's just a matter of time before the Braves figure this thing out. Too many of these hitters are proven for anything else to happen.
Jarred Kelenic just sent a baseball into orbit 🪐
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) June 9, 2024
413 feet for the @Braves left fielder. pic.twitter.com/DXi46DGaKu
If guys like Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Matt Olson struggle for an entire 162 game season then sure the Braves may be a bad team. But that's quite literally something that has never happened in any of their careers yet.
Big picture thinking tells us that we've still got nearly 100 games left in the season. And although the numbers may not be the same that produced a historic 2023 season, we have to imagine they'll be good enough to grant the Braves another chance at playoff baseball. When you lose your two best players that's still a good outcome.
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