The Max Fried Decision
The Braves aren’t going to sign Max Fried for a few reasons. Over 99% of free agents who test free agency sign with new teams, and Fried is the Braves’ player rep. He’ll look for the biggest deal because that’s what the MLBPA wants players to do. Fried will command a deal close to Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162 million deal.
Fried’s older than Rodón, and while he’s had blister issues, his injury history isn’t nearly as checkered. He uses four pitches like an artist uses a brush while Rodón throws harder and hopes more often, so teams willing to overpay later for performance today will pay him and may go to seven years.
The AAV won’t bother the Braves as much as the length of the deal. It’s extremely rare that a long-term deal for a pitcher is worth the annual cost after four to five years. The club hasn’t given a deal that long to a pitcher, and they won’t change that for Max, so despite the young arms arriving, this season has shown they will need another pitcher either by signing a free agent or, more likely, trading for one.
Recreating the Braves Roster
Every season during ‘The Streak,’ the Braves changed 20%-25% of the roster. Today’s Atlanta Braves need to do that by clearing underperforming, injured, declining players from the roster, resolving to stop bringing back players who were really great years ago (thanks for your service, Adam, see you at Alumni Weekend), and stop trying to put a square peg into a round hole.
Luke Jackson is the polar opposite of Aaron Bummer. His 5.49 ERA (8.00 for the Braves) is worse than his 4.58 FIP (4.83 for the Braves), but 2021 was Luke’s career year. This season is who Luke Jackson is now. The Braves should pay him the $2M buyout and let him walk.
We now know that A.J. Minter’s hip injury is the reason he had a down year in 2024. Minter’s a free agent who’ll command a similar deal to the three-year, $26M deal of Joe Jimenez. Minter’s coming off serious hip surgery and is two years older than Jimenez. The Braves should let him walk.
Expect the Braves to nontender Huascar Ynoa. He’s been injured since 2022, has over three years of Major League service, and is arb-eligible for the second time next year. It doesn’t save a lot of money and he could choose free agency, but his injury history suggests letting him move on isn’t a bad idea, and it opens a 40-man roster slot.