One of the storylines of the Atlanta Braves' 2024 season that has been flying a bit under the radar given all of the team's injuries is Max Fried's long-term future with the team. Before the season started, a Fried extension was an extremely hot topic and both sides seemed content to continue negotiating out of the public eye.
Before Fried went on the injured list right after the All-Star break, it looked like he was positioning himself very well for a nice payday with Atlanta or elsewhere. He had a 3.08 ERA in 18 starts and while his strikeout and walk numbers were a little off, there wasn't reason to believe that he wouldn't end up as one of the best pitchers on the Braves' staff by the end of the season.
However, Fried's injury and subsequent stumble in his first start back from the IL has added quite the wrinkle. It was already very debatable whether or not the Braves and Fried were going to line up on a long-term contract. Now, it may be less likely than ever that Fried could be back after this season.
Braves re-signing Max Fried is looking more dubious than ever right now
There are just some fundamental problems with the Braves re-signing Fried after the season. There is no denying that Fried has been one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball since 2020. He has a pair of top 5 Cy Young finished during that span and his 2.79 ERA across 102 starts represents one of the top marks in the league. When he is right, Fried is a frontline starter who can match up with any pitcher in baseball.
However, he is already 30 years old and this is now the second season in a row where he missed time with an arm injury. While his absence this season was pretty short, he missed two months last season with a strained forearm, and one wonders if his most recent injury is still bothering him given how rough his start on Sunday against the Marlins looked.
For a while, the contract that many have pointed to as a potential blueprint for a Fried deal was the six-year contract that Carlos Rodon signed with the Yankees. Rodon was coming off a dominant run himself and also was around the same age and had a history of injuries that factored into his market. In a lot of ways, it was almost too perfect a comparison to make between the two lefties.
The problem with his comparison is that Rodon's contract hasn't exactly aged well. He was terrible in New York in 2023 and while his 4.37 ERA this season is an improvement, Rodon's strikeout numbers are still down from his time with the White Sox and Giants and he certainly hasn't lived up to how much he is making with the Yankees.
The end result is a very murky situation with Fried and the Braves. It seems like the Braves would like to bring him back after the season and Fried has been more than open about how much he has enjoyed playing in Atlanta. However, if he wants around the $162 million that Rodon got given his age and recent arm troubles, the Braves may be better off letting someone else pay him that.