If you've watched the Atlanta Braves this season for at least a few games, you've almost certainly come across a frustrating at bat (or 20) where the Braves batters were seemingly could not get out of their own way, chasing at everything in a clutch situation.
Unsurprisingly, the data backs this viewing experience, as the Braves are one of the worst teams in the league at chasing pitches outside the strike zone. Oddly, this approach hasn't necessarily lead to a rise in strikeouts, but the actual outcomes may have fans wishing for swing and miss.
Braves are biggest offenders when it comes to chasing out of the zone, but there's a twist
According to Statcast, the Braves are chasing outside of the zone over one-third of the time, with their 33.4% chase-rate ranking as the second-worst in MLB. Only the Rockies have a worse chase rate this season. While initially, chasing outside of the zone seems like a recipe for strikeouts, the Braves actually rank in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate, with their 21.8% rate coming in 16th in MLB.
These stats may seem to contradict each other, as chasing outside of the zone is giving the opponents free strikes, but the Braves aren't necessarily doing that. Atlanta's out-of-zone contact rate of 62.2% is actually the fourth-best in MLB.
The Braves also have the second-best AVG on balls outside of the strike zone, and the second-highest SLG, behind the Rays in both categories. Considering this, it might not seem like such a bad strategy for the Braves to continuing chasing as they do, especially when it's resulted in some ridiculous home runs, like this Drake Baldwin solo shot.
However, a closer inspection reveals the real issue: even the second-best at chasing is still yielding bad results. The Braves are hitting just .183 on balls out of the strike zone, and slugging just .262. Meanwhile, their .363 OBP on such balls is the fourth-worst in MLB.
Essentially, even though the outcomes when the Braves chase aren't as bad as other teams, it's still a worse trade-off than simply laying off bad pitches. Considering that Atlanta is hitting .280 on balls in the strike zone with a .484 slugging percentage, it's clear that Atlanta not waiting for their pitch is actually hurting the team.
It's not one player who heavily skews the results for the Braves either. While Michael Harris II is a notorious free-swinger, the Braves have eight players who have taken 50 plate appearances or more with a chase rate worse than league average, with Jorge Mateo being the lone member of the list no longer on the Braves' active roster. Harris, Ozzie Albies, and Mauricio Dubón have chase rates in the 13th-percentile or worse.
Of the remaining seven players with better-than-average chase rates, four, Ronald Acuña Jr, Matt Olson, Mike Yastrzemski, and Ha-Seong Kim, are all on the active roster
It should be unsurprising that the Braves have the third-worst walk-rate in MLB. It should also be unsurprising that this is not a good recipe for success. The next-worst team by walk-rate with a winning record is the Red Sox, who have a walk-rate 0.6 percentage points higher.
It is a bit of an oversimplification to say that the Braves should focus at swinging at strikes and laying off balls, but it's clear their chase-heavy strategy is not going to be a winning one down the stretch, especially when they have to face better pitchers with better control. Even if the chasing doesn't result in a strikeout, it will still result in a bad result more often than it will a good result.
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