It seems like every offseason, we talk about how Atlanta Braves centerfielder Michael Harris II is on the cusp of stardom and once the season begins, we talk about how his chase-rate is holding him back. Unfortunately, through the Braves' first 13 games, the alarms are sounding again.
The chasing has only gotten worse, which has, unsurprisingly, led to worse outcomes for a Braves offense that has seemingly forgotten how to hit.
Michael Harris II chase rate might ruin his chance at being a superstar
3532 RPMs on this Breaking Ball from Dustin May. 😳 pic.twitter.com/AFE4W7ySxF
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 2, 2025
Since debuting in 2022, chasing pitches out of the zone has been a major flaw in Michael Harris II's approach. Coming into the 2025 season, his 38.9% rate from 2022-2024 was the ninth-worst in baseball.
This approach hadn't been a very fruitful approach either, as he only hit .181 with a .245 SLG on pitches outside the strike zone. It has been clear that if Harris was going to take that jump from good player to star, he needed to cut down on his chases.
13 games into the regular season, the trend is going the wrong way. Harris's 48.7% chase-rate is the third-highest in the majors. On pitches in the zone, Harris is hitting .300 with a .467 SLG. On pitches out of the zone, he is hitting .056. 10 of his 13 strikeouts have been on chase pitches.
Pitchers right now have the key on Money Mike, getting ahead in the count and then spamming him with pitches out of the zone. So far, Harris is not making the adjustment, and it might be getting to late.
There have been 74 MLB players through their age-24 season with at least 1500 PAs and 90 or fewer walks. Michael Harris, 13 games into his age-24 season, already ranks 13th in WAR. Six of these players became Hall of Famers, but only Edd Roush and George Sisler debuted in the 20th-century or later, and both of them debuted in the 1910s.
Of course, the Hall of Fame is a high bar, but many players on this list who initially shined as young players fell off quickly in their thirties, like Adam Jones, Benito Santiago, and Gerry Templeton.
One notable player who did eventually find their way around the strike zone after seasons of struggling to walk was Robinson Cano. Cano had just a 4.2% walk-rate through his five seasons with the Yankees. He was still a very productive player in those first six seasons, but he only averaged 3.1 WAR per season and had a career 111 OPS+.
During his sixth season with the Yankees, his walk-rate nearly doubled to 8.2%. He went from an All-Star level player to an MVP candidate, and over the next nine seasons, where he had a 7.8% walk-rate, he averaged 5.9 WAR per season.
The Braves need Michael Harris II at his best, but he won't be able to truly show off how skilled he is until he stops letting pitchers get away with throwing him uncompetitive pitches.