While Jurickson Profar started off his Atlanta Braves tenure in the worst possible way, the switch-hitting left fielder has spent August doing everything he can to try and win back over fans.
Going into Thursday's game against the Phillies, Profar had the highest wRC+ among any qualified hitter in baseball. His .309/.454/.660 slash line this month has helped supercharge the Braves offense, which has scored the fourth-most runs in baseball.
Although most of Profar's advanced metrics don't look pretty and suggest that he's likely getting rather lucky, there is one key indication that this heater the 32-year-old is on might just be sustainable.
Jurickson Profar's pull-rate could be the key to his success with Braves
For the season, Jurickson Profar is over-performing his xBA by 21 points, his xSLG by 61 points, and his xwOBA by 31 points. While a .245/.355/.434 would still be an above average hitter, the OPS would be more in line with a 115-125 wRC+ than it is to Profar's current wRC+.
This might sound slightly concerning, especially considering the left fielder's defense has been suspect at best, Profar's pull rate might indicate that this level of over-performing is sustainable.
Currently, Profar is rocking a career-high 47.7% pull rate. While this can be problematic, especially when Profar is hitting left-handed, if he's pulling ground balls, it is extremely beneficial if those pullside balls are in the air.
Thankfully, Profar is doing just that. Currently, he's pulling the ball in the air 24.4% of the time when he hits the ball in play, which is a career-high by over two percentage points.
Players like Cal Raleigh and Isaac Paredes have feasted by pulling the ball in the air, with Paredes famously overperforming his expected metrics because of just how good he is at pulling the ball in the air to the shortest part of the park. By pulling the ball in the air, players don't need to hit the ball as hard to park one over the fence (or at the very least, off the fence or off the line).
Expected metrics like xBA and xSLG don't account for where the ball is hit, only how hard the ball was hit and at what angle the ball was hit at. Because the fence is closer to home plate at the foul line, balls don't need to be hit as hard to go over the fence.
While Profar's 24.4% pullAIR% is not in the same stratosphere as Raleigh and Paredes, who have rates pushing 40%, it's still better than over 84% of MLB players with at least 100 batted balls. This would suggest that even though he's "over-performing" his expected metrics, as long as Profar continues to pull the ball in the air as often as he has been, the success will follow.