Shota Imanaga is one of the more intriguing free agents to monitor this offseason. If you were to look at his numbers since he arrived in Major League Baseball, you would see a pitcher who is clearly a reliable middle of the rotation starter. Across Imanaga's three Major League seasons, he has a 3.45 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, 19% K-BB%, and 6.5 bWAR in 86 starts. This kind of consistency is exactly what the Atlanta Braves need to add to their rotation.
So why are his contract projections so modest despite entering his age 33 season? Both ESPN and MLB Trade Rumors predict Imanaga will sign for 2-years, $40 million this offseason. Durable pitchers of Imanaga's age and track record often sign for larger contracts. The answer is one that could take the Braves out of Imanaga's market entirely: his worrisome home run rate.
Shōta Imanaga, Filthy 83mph Splitter. 😷 pic.twitter.com/oAsqlXKFHk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 22, 2026
Braves should target Shota Imanaga, but only if Alex Anthopoulos can look past his worrisome home run rate
The reason big league teams aren't racing to spend $60 million on Imanaga is his troubling home run rate. Teams are hesitant to sign Imanaga because home runs are a killer in the postseason, and it's part of the reason why the Cubs have not been comfortable enough to trust Imanaga in October.
This is a trait Alex Anthopoulos has historically steered away from, and it definitely does not fit his definition of a "pitcher who can make a postseason start." Imanaga is a fly ball pitcher, ranking in the 23rd percentile in ground ball rate in 2026. Last season, Imanaga finished with the second highest home runs per nine innings (1.81 HR/9) among qualified starters in baseball. For reference, Chris Sale finished with the lowest (0.55 HR/9) in MLB.
Additionally, Imanaga's 16.1% home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) was the third highest in the league. This major red flag in Imanaga's profile is why many pundits predict he will land with a team like the Giants, given they have a spacious home ballpark to accommodate his high fly ball rate.
However, this red flag should not be a conversation-ender for the Braves. Yes, Imanaga struggles with the home run ball, but his solid strikeout rate, elite walk rate, and durability are all traits that Atlanta's rotation could use. It is a gamble to invest in a pitcher who averaged 91.6 mph on his fastball last season, but Imanaga doesn't let that prevent him from posting solid numbers. If the contract projections are correct on Imanaga, the Braves need to jump at the opportunity to land a reliable starter on a short-term deal.
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