In baseball, many experts (or at least people who call themselves that) like familiarity and easy fits. If a team needs an outfielder and there is a free-agent outfielder from the same state who is available, it is a mortal lock that plenty of people will try to connect the two in the rumor mill. If a player mentions growing up as a fan of a team, or a team tries to sign a guy once, you can bet they will be tied together until that player retires. The Atlanta Braves are no exception to this phenomenon, and Sonny Gray is an easy example.
Gray has become available several times over the last decade or so, and the Braves have been connected to his market pretty much every time. Some of that is due to genuine interest from Atlanta, but a lot of that speculation stems from the fact that Gray prefers playing relatively close to his family’s home near Nashville. Every single time, Gray has decided to play elsewhere, and there has been little indication the Braves were close to signing him.
Well, that is continuing this offseason with MLB Trade Rumors' free agent predictions. Once again, Gray finds himself on the open market after a strong season with the Red Sox. To the surprise of exactly no one, MLBTR predicted the Braves are a primary landing spot for Gray, despite a long history of that not being a real thing.
Braves fans probably shouldn't hold their breath for the team to sign Sonny Gray, and that is okay
Admittedly, it is tempting to try to make Gray a fit for the Braves. The veteran pitcher has continued to be productive into his mid-30s, and he won't require a long-term deal. That sounds like an Alex Anthopoulos signing already. Combine that with Gray’s presumed geographic preferences, and one can at least understand why so many people follow this line of thinking.
The problem is that it defies almost everything about Gray's track record. Gray grew up a Reds fan and signed an extension to stay there after a tumultuous tenure with the Yankees. When he finally hit the free agent market after the 2023 season, everyone was talking about the Braves signing him, only for him to land with the Cardinals on a three-year deal.
The fact is, while Gray may prefer to play near where his family lives, he is going to go where the totality of the offer he receives is the best. His last contract had a $25 million AAV, and he just turned down a $30 million player option in favor of a $10 million buyout. He KNOWS that he is only going to get so many more chances to get paid, which is exactly why he declined that option.
Should the Braves give Gray a one-year deal in that $30 million AAV range with some kind of option for 2028? At his age, that may or may not be okay, but let's stop pretending Gray will come hat in hand and let the Braves sign him to a friendly deal because he likes the area. Money still talks, and while Gray had a great season, let's stop thinking that all the Braves need to do is open the door and that Gray will just walk on through.
Add us as a preferred source on Google