Coming into the 2026 season, one of the bigger question marks for the Atlanta Braves was what they were going to do with the starting pitching staff, especially how Grant Holmes and Reynaldo Lopez would respond after season-ending injuries.
Two months into the regular season, that question has been somewhat resolved, as Holmes has been able to stick around as a starter, while Lopez hasn't. However, while Holmes overall results signify a somewhat competent starter, a closer inspection reveals that the Braves righty would be much more effective as a reliever.
Grant Holmes underlying numbers make it clear what his role should be going forward
On the surface, Holmes has been a solid fourth starter. The 30-year-old has a 3.95 ERA through his first 11 starts, and has only allowed more than three runs in one of those starts.
Unfortunately, that's as far as the positives go for Holmes. Thanks to a below-average walk- and strikeout-rate, coupled with a below-average home-run rate, Holmes has a 5.03 FIP and 4.30 xERA, signifying that there's been a fair amount of luck on Holmes's end.
Further inspection shows that Holmes is having the most trouble later in the game. Through the first time through the order, Holmes has held hitters to a .180/.263/.292 slash, good for a .555 OPS. However, when batters face him for a second time, their slashline increases to .302/.371/.640, good for a 1.011 OPS.
Although that OPS falls back down to .575 when hitters come around for a third time, they have far fewer chances because by that point, Holmes is often out of the game. The Braves fourth starter has only made it into the seventh inning in one of his 11 starts. Meanwhile, he hasn't made it out of the fifth inning in four of his starts. When Holmes takes the mound, Walt Weiss and the Braves are essentially forced to ensure they have a long reliever ready to pitch a few innings every single start.
With his success against hitters when he first faces them, it seems like a no-brainer to move Holmes to the bullpen at some point this season. Whether it's immediately, with the Braves either slotting Didier Fuentes into the rotation or bringing JR Ritchie back from Gwinnett, or if it's once Hurston Waldrep, AJ Smith-Shawver and Spencer Schwellenbach return from their injuries this summer, it's obvious that Grant Holmes won't finish the 2026 season in the Braves rotation.
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