Grant Holmes has now surpassed 220 innings pitched in his major league career, and Braves fans have a clear understanding of what he looks like when he is at his best on the mound. Since debuting in 2024, Holmes has built his reputation around a devastating breaking ball.
Holmes leaned heavily on his slider in 2025, throwing it more than 35% of the time, and still managed to generate an impressive 42.8% whiff rate. While the results of the pitch have remained largely consistent with last season, the underlying metrics show subtle signs of change.
The spin rates on Holmes' signature breaking pitches have notably deviated from previous levels. The dip in his spin rate in 2026 is not necessarily cause for alarm quite yet, but it is a development worth monitoring for Braves fans moving forward.
Grant Holmes, Dirty 85mph Slider...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/5mBgXfPIrr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2026
Grant Holmes' slight dip in his spin rates on his slider makes Braves fans nervous about his health status
Last season, Holmes averaged 2,841 RPM on his slider and 2,910 RPM on his curveball. This year, those figures have dipped slightly to 2,752 RPM on the slider and 2,779 RPM on the curveball. As with velocity, even marginal declines in spin rate can alter the effectiveness of a pitch. While Holmes has not yet seen dramatic changes in his results, his 4.59 xFIP — a career high — suggests potential regression could be on the horizon.
It’s also worth remembering that Holmes was shut down last season with elbow issues, so if these spin rate trends continue to decline as the year progresses, concerns about his health will inevitably begin to surface among fans.
Given that Holmes has not been dominant in 2026 and carries a recent history of elbow concerns, a transition to a bullpen role in the near future could be a prudent move. Atlanta may have the flexibility to explore that option as soon as Sunday, when Spencer Strider is expected to return to the rotation.
Of course, that scenario also depends on the Braves continuing to carry rookie JR Ritchie in the rotation—far from a guarantee. Ultimately, Holmes remains an effective arm, but the subtle shifts in his spin rates warrant close attention as the season unfolds. How Atlanta manages his workload—whether by keeping him in the rotation or exploring a bullpen role—could prove critical in preserving both his health and long-term value.
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