Coming off a strong 2024 campaign where his underlying metrics suggested that his career year was no fluke, the Atlanta Braves seemed to have found one of the offseason's best values when they signed Jurickson Profar to a three-year, $42 million deal.
Unfortunately, things went awry nearly immediately when Profar was hit with an 80-game PED suspension before April was even underway. The shocking suspension was the first domino of many to fall that would force Atlanta's season off the rails before they ever had a chance to get on track.
At its face, the Profar deal should look like a disappointment and a move the Braves will live to regret; however, closer examination of this year's free-agent class shows that it might still be a shrewd move.
The state of the free-agent outfielder class should justify the Braves' decision to sign Jurickson Profar
When Profar returned in July, it took a few weeks for him to knock off the rust. While that was disappointing, and for Braves fans who already felt betrayed, incredibly frustrating, it didn't last long. By mid-August, Profar was beginning to find his groove.
When the dust finally settled, Profar hadn't quite reached 2024's heights, but he came pretty close. The total line ended at .245/.353/.434 with 14 homers and stellar walk (12.9%) and strikeout (15.9%) rates. His defense was still a challenge, but in totality, if it weren't for the suspension, it was exactly the kind of performance that fans thought they were signing up for.
Fast forward to today, and finding an outfielder who can produce at those levels in the vicinity of Profar's price tag is quite the challenge.
The top two options on the market are Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger. Tucker's projections have him pushing $400 million for his next contract, while Bellinger seems to be looking at a long-term deal in the $160-$180 million range. Not exactly, Profar money.
After those two, there's a steep drop off. You have guys in their twilight like Starling Marte and Mike Yastrzemski. Then there are guys coming off massively disappointing years like Michael Conforto and Randal Grichuk. There are also guys like Kyle Schwarber who are outfielders only in the fact that they once tried to play out there until their clubs took away their gloves for good.
The only player in this year's class who could be a reasonable approximation of Profar is Trent Grisham; however, even he is a complicated case. While Profar had issues with inconsistency, which tempered down his market value a year ago, Grisham's inconsistency is that he was consistently bad... until now.
A breakout season with 34 homers will draw some attention for Grisham, and it might be enough to make some team give him even more than Profar got a year ago, but there's also the fact that he hit sub-.200 for three consecutive years prior to 2025, and was thought of as a potential non-tender candidate this time last year.
All said and done, Profar's contract is still a bargain, and the Braves are better off with him on the roster than trying to find a player in the same vein in this thin outfield market.