Braves fans were screaming for Willy Adames to be their priority move in the offseason when the season ended. Three years ago, when we knew Dansby Swanson was leaving, so was I. But not anymore.
Adames is the best free agent shortstop available, and many contending teams, including Atlanta, could use him. MLBTR projects Adames to get six years at $160M at an AAV of $26.6M, more annually than what Swanson received with his seven-year, $177M contract with the Cubs.
I wrote about the collection of penalties that a CBT payor, like the Braves, faces for signing a player with a QO. Those penalties and budget issues caused by Diamond Sports going belly up but not being dead yet make it hard for the team to go all in for Adames.
While it’s theoretically possible to whittle down the teams in Adames' shortstop market, and Atlanta would be a fine suitor, too many things are working against a deal coming to fruition. However, there is a former top MLB prospect that could fill the Braves' needs at a much lower cost.
Former top Dodgers prospect Gavin Lux is a viable shortstop option for the Braves in 2025
The Dodgers have NLCS MVP Tommy Edman under team control for another year, picked up the team option on Miguel Rojas, and announced that Mookie Betts is moving back to the infield. They also have shortstop Alex Freeland in Triple-A, ready to arrive next season. That means the Dodgers may decide to move on from their former top prospect, Gavin Lux.
MLB Pipeline posted their last grades for Lux in 2020, and they were impressive.
Lux had a 23-game cup of coffee in 2019 and appeared in 19 games in 2020 but struggled to find his stroke. The lack of a full Spring Training in 2021 and a wrist injury that cost him 10 days in the middle of April led to a weak start. However, he improved slightly around the ASG, but a hamstring injury cost him most of August.
Lux struggled with nagging neck and back injuries in his swing in 2022. On Feb 28, 2023, he tore his ACL and LCL, costing him the 2023 season. He had another yo-yo season in 2024 until the All-Star Break.
He went home over All-Star break and reconnected with his high school coach Augie Schmidt. They looked at videos of his swing then and determined Lux wasn’t swinging with conviction. The swing that got him drafted and earned him that 60-power grade was meant to do damage. The current swing was an attempt to keep from hitting routine grounders but only produced them.
He told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya that he’d been favoring the repaired knee, which made his swing weak. After the trip home, he had a different perspective. Lux stated, "The first two pitches are mine to do damage. (If) The pitcher makes a good pitch... and I don’t feel like I can do damage...I’m going to take it…once you get to two strikes (it’s time) to fight and put the ball in play..”
Lux further stated that he’d been holding back at the plate, scared putting weight on his repaired knee. When he returned to the team, he told hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc that changed and it fixed his swing.
After batting .213/.267/.295/.562 with three homers, a .251 wOBA, and 60 wRC+ in the first half, he crushed a .304/.390/.508 line, delivered seven homers, posted a .387 wOBA, a .899 OPS, and a 152 wRC+ in the second half.
Is Gavin Lux a guaranteed difference maker for the Atlanta Braves?
Lux isn’t a perfect answer, but no one is. The injuries in 2021 and 2022 that caused his arm to underperform are gone, so throwing from short shouldn't be a problem. The Dodgers were going to give him the shortstop job in 2024, but his bat started badly. Fortunately for Lux, he's found his stroke again.
The Dodgers platooned Lux after his rough start, but in 2022, Lux batted .263/.330/.354.684 against LHP and .280/.351/.413/.764 against RHP. There’s no reason he can't do that again.
When I first considered the Braves acquiring Lux, I wasn’t high on the idea but after mulling it over, it made more sense. If my choice is to live with Arcia every day or acquire Lux, I’m on the Lux train. He's under team control via arbitration through 2026 and is projected to earn $2.7MM in 2025.
Lux is a better fit than any of the affordable free agents. He’s postseason-tested, and leaving LA will relieve a lot of self-imposed pressure. I don’t know what the Dodgers would want, but if we get a shortstop who posts a 120 wRC+ and Friedman doesn’t get stupid with the ask, I’d love to have him on board.