Braves signing Willy Adames this offseason isn’t as great an idea as it sounds

Orlando Arcia had a pretty rough season for the Atlanta Braves in 2024. He returned from a career-best season in 2023, and replicating that success proved impossible. Arcia wasn't the only Brave to regress offensively but the most glaring example.

This leaves Atlanta's front office with a significant question to answer ahead of next season: Should Orlando Arcia be the starting shortstop in 2025?

Arcia ended 2024 with a .218 average and a 72 wRC+, which was the second-worst in baseball. This is not a great indicator for the Braves, despite Orlando's great defense and costing just $2 million on the payroll.

However, there is an upgrade available via free agency, and that is Willy Adames. Adames had a good season with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2024, and it will fetch him a pretty penny. His bat is noticeably better than Arcia but his defense lacks compared to Atlanta's shortstop.

Braves signing power-hitting shortstop Willy Adames isn’t as great of an idea as it sounds

The Braves have been linked to Willy Adames in the past, so it isn't hard to believe they'll entertain the idea again. But does it make sense?

Defensively, Adames had a 1 OAA and -16 DRS in 2024 compared to Arcia's 5 OAA/0 DRS. They aren't too far apart in outs above average, but the difference in defensive runs saved is glaring. Adames' OAA is great, as it's in the 67th percentile across baseball. His DRS was 8 in 2023, and he still has great arm strength, so he may have just had a down year on defense. But that'll be something to consider for the Braves, as they highly value defense.

On the offensive side, it's easy to see where Adames' advantage lies. In 2024, he finished with a .251 average, including 32 home runs and 112 RBI. The power is there, as indicated by his home run totals and xSLG (.474), barrel % (12.0), LA sweet spot % (38.2), and bat speed (73.6 mph). Adames also walks a lot, with a 10.8% walk rate compared to Arcia's 6.8% this season.

However, impressive power numbers also come with the downside of strikeouts. Both players have that in common. Willy struck out 100 more times than he walked (74 walks, 174 strikeouts), which equals out to a 25.1% K-rate.

Those are a few of the factors Atlanta has to consider performance-wise. The extra pop is nice, but the high number of strikeouts is concerning, considering the defense isn't as good as Orlando's.

The front office must also consider the budget when vying for Adames' services. He earned $12 million in 2024, which is $10 million more than what Arcia earned. Arcia will make $2 million again in 2025, the final year of his 3-year contract with the Braves (he does have a club option for 2026).

That is a huge cost difference, and with Adames having a career year offensively, he could be looking at a multi-year contract valued in the $20 million AAV range. His price may keep him out of Atlanta's comfort level, as they have the need to potentially fill two rotation spots this offseason.

That is enough of a reason for the team to move on from Adames and let Arcia try and figure things out next season. He still has value defensively and the cost is hard to pass up even though his offense hurt the team all season. It will be interesting to see what the Braves decide to do.

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