The Atlanta Braves have been getting blasted by pretty much everyone for their efforts at the trade deadline. Adding a righty bat in Lane Thomas as well as some fringe arms is great, but this is a Braves team that needed real fortification in their rotation, and Alex Anthopoulos only came away with Tyler Mahle. After Bryce Elder shut down the Marlins on Wednesday, there were some who were a bit quick to declare that the front office was right to trust the guys the Braves already had.
The results have indeed been significantly better for Elder over his last five starts. Including his start against Miami this week, Elder has posted a 2.57 ERA over his last 28 innings and has gone at least five innings in four of his last five starts. Great news, the Braves have their playoff starter after all, right?
Well, not so fast. Yes, the results have been good, but Elder's role in those results is questionable at best, and there are a lot of signs that regression is going to be coming for him in a hurry.
Bryce Elder's recent performances are an illusion, and the Braves will have to find a solution before it shatters
Baseball is certainly a results-oriented business, so many will point to the numbers above as well as the fact that Atlanta is 4-1 in his last five starts as "proof" that Elder has figured things out again. While Elder pitching to his strengths may have helped a bit, the truth is that what we are seeing is a stretch in which opposing hitters have had some rotten batted-ball luck, and Elder has been fortunate not to be much, much worse.
Over those same five starts where Elder has posted a sub-3 ERA, his 6.13 FIP strongly suggests that his actual performance was significantly less impressive and that he was bailed out by his defense and some timely outs. If Elder was uniquely good at getting soft contact, then opposing hitters having just a .164 BABIP against him during that stretch could at least be partially explained. However, Elder's average exit velocity against is just in the bottom 21% this season in all of baseball. Hell, even in his gem against Miami, Elder still gave up 10 batted balls over 90 mph.
Some may not like FIP or expected stats, so let's put it this way. If we told you that any pitcher had given up 19 hits and 12 walks over his last 28 innings versus just 21 strikeouts, how many runs would you guess that pitcher gave up? Odds are good that you wouldn't guess 10 runs (eight earned), but that is exactly what Elder has done. Right now, Elder is successfully walking a tightrope, and that is great. However, let's not pretend that he is going to be the Braves' savior come October, because the Braves need someone else to step up into that role if/when Elder comes crashing back to earth.
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