The Atlanta Braves remain a difficult team for the national media to assess. The club's star power leads many to anticipate a rebound in 2026, yet ongoing concerns about player durability and potential decline give those same optimists reason for caution.
Overall, projecting a win total for the Braves is a challenging exercise. Attempting to forecast how each player’s season might unfold only adds to the complexity. Recently, Jayson Stark of The Athletic published an article evaluating the bounce-back potential of several Braves stars, and the resulting projections included both encouraging outlooks and others Braves fans hope do not materialize.
Jayson Stark offers mixed 2026 projections for Braves stars, but hopes are high overall
When reading Stark’s assessment of the 2026 Atlanta Braves, it is clear that he recognizes the club’s potential. While each player profile stops short of offering a definitive prediction, his language provides insight into which players he appears more confident will put together a strong 2026 campaign.
Two Braves who earned optimistic 2026 outlooks from Jayson Stark
The Braves’ slugging third baseman has enjoyed a resurgent spring so far, and many believe a strong 2026 campaign could be in store for Austin Riley. After reading Stark’s analysis, it becomes clear he shares that sentiment. In fact, Stark punctuated his thoughts on Riley by writing, “it’s easier to see a return to stardom, for a healthy Riley, than almost anyone else on this list.”
Riley’s spring performance suggests he may be well positioned for a bounce-back campaign. In 33 spring plate appearances, Riley is slugging .769 and has consistently driven the ball with authority to all fields. The belief that he has addressed flaws in his swing is beginning to show supporting evidence.
Riley briefly tied for the team lead with this opposite-field shot pic.twitter.com/k5jAcaj2fL
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) March 7, 2026
The other player who appears to have earned an optimistic outlook is center fielder Michael Harris II. In his article, Jayson Stark notes that Harris was a “unanimous” choice among his teammates when they were asked which Atlanta Braves player had most caught their attention this spring. Pitcher Grant Holmes even joked that Harris had drawn as many walks this spring as he did all of last season.
Stark noted that Harris II’s plate discipline has been a clear point of emphasis this spring, and so far the early returns have been encouraging. The next step will be carrying that progress into the regular season, and those around Harris appear confident he is well positioned to continue building on those improvements.
Two Braves who earned pessimistic 2026 outlooks from Jayson Stark
The first Atlanta Braves player to draw some skepticism is the popular second baseman Ozzie Albies. Jayson Stark was quick to highlight Albies’ decline in bat speed and his drop to the 16th percentile in average exit velocity. Despite his historic moment in the WBC, a growing number of doubters have begun to emerge around Albies’ outlook.
The encouraging news for Braves fans is that Albies has a history of outperforming his batted-ball metrics. It is not inconceivable for Albies to approach his 2023 production, provided he regains his effectiveness from the right side of the plate and remains healthy for a full season.
The final Atlanta Braves player facing some skepticism for the 2026 season is starting pitcher Spencer Strider. Considered the presumed No. 2 arm in the Braves’ rotation, Strider remains a key figure to monitor this year, and his fastball velocity this spring continues to generate discussion.
Count Stark among those expressing doubts about Strider’s ability to return to form. Stark noted that it would be difficult for Strider to regain his previous dominance without rediscovering his high-velocity fastball. He also highlighted that Strider ranked in the bottom fifth percentile in hard-hit rate last year, and that his whiff rate this spring was 15% lower than during his dominant 2023 season.
In summary, the 2026 outlook for the Braves is a mix of promise and uncertainty. Stars like Riley and Harris II show encouraging signs of growth and refinement, while players such as Albies and Strider carry questions that could impact the team’s performance. As spring training concludes and the regular season approaches, the Braves’ ability to balance these highs and lows will likely determine whether 2026 becomes a season of resurgence or one of missed opportunities.