When news broke that the Giants had signed Adames, I breathed a metaphorical sigh of relief. While adding Adames wouldn’t have filled multiple needs, it would have had a negative impact on the Atlanta Braves’ roster and finances for a number of years.
Adames would’ve cost the Atlanta Braves so much more than money
At the end of October, we wrote about the penalties signing a player with a qualifying offer would have on the Braves. The Giants gave Adames seven years and $162 million - $22.85 million a year and a $22 million signing bonus – and that had a smaller, but significant impact on the club.
The signing immediately cost the Giants their second and fifth highest draft picks, as well as $1 million in 2025 international bonus pool money. Baseball America’s end-of-year rankings (subscription required) confirm what we all know: the Braves’ farm system lacks quality prospects.
BA ranks Atlanta’s farm system 27th overall based on these ranks.
- Hit + - 27th
- Exit velocity - 25th
- Contact rate - 22nd
- Chase Rate - 17th
- Barrel rate - 28th
Atlanta's only top 100 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline anyways, are AJ Smith-Shawver (98) and Cam Caminiti (92) based on one game with Augusta. Giving up draft picks and $1 million from the international bonus pool would hurt the club’s future.
The Braves were CBT payors in 2023 and raced past the $257 million surcharge threshold in 2024 to finish less than $1 million under the second surcharge threshold of $277M. We’ve seen the Braves restructure two contracts, decline Travis d’Arnaud’s option, and nontender Ramon Laureano as they attempt to reset their tax status.
Fangraphs’ Roster Resource shows the team with $217 already committed to the 2025 payroll. Adding a $26M AAV contract like that of Adames would send them past this year’s $241 CBT base level, and they’d still like to add a veteran starter, a left fielder, and, oh yes, a shortstop.
Braves Bargain Hunting Season
On Sunday, Alex Anthopoulos said that the Braves surpassing the CBT for a third season wouldn’t absolutely prevent them from making a deal, then suggested Grant Holmes might be their fifth starter. IMHO, that’s spin. He would definitely prefer not to pass the tax threshold, but the deal would have to be for a real difference maker. In that vein, I’ll touch on a few bargains to help hold down costs.
I wrote about Mike Tauchman last week. Tauchman fits the job description being repeated by the Braves beat writers to a T, and he’s inexpensive.
In mid-November, I suggested that the Dodgers move of Mookie Betts to the infield might make Gavin Lux available as a shortstop. Since then, the Dodgers extended Tommy Edman, which could make Lux even more available, but I have a new name to toss into the mix: Willi Castro.
Who is Willi Castro?
The Indians (now Guardians) signed Casto as an international free agent in 2013 and traded him to Detroit at the deadline in 2018. He became a free agent after the 2022 season and signed with the Twins that December.
Since joining Minnesota, Castro’s acted as a super-utility player, filling in mostly at second, third, and in the outfield in 2023. Last season he stepped to play 22 games at short when Carlos Corea went down with an injury, in addition to his 38 games at second, 21 at third, 31 in left, and 28 in center.
On the season he batted .247/.331/.385/.717 including 31 doubles, five triples, and 12 homers, giving him a .317 wOBA and 105 wRC+ on the year. Defensively, Statcast rates him 3 OAA as short, but reviews were mixed as he posted -9 DRS on the year.
Castro is a free agent after next year, so he shouldn’t be expensive in terms of prospects. He’s in his third arbitration year, which Roster Resource estimates will cost about $6M. Other players like Castro are probably available, but Castro seems the best of that group.
That’s a Wrap
Atlanta needs to find a long-term answer at short somewhere because Arcia isn’t getting in younger or better, and I’ve seen no one who believes Nacho Alvarez is a shortstop, so there’s no one in the system above A-ball capable of taking the job.
Teams are loathe to trade shortstops as they are athletic enough to play most positions. Still, it does happen, but when it does, it’s very expensive. Time and Alex Anthopoulos will provide an answer, but the odds favor Arcia being the starter again this year. If the rest of the lineup hits like projected, that shouldn’t be a problem…I hope.