After the first year, it looked like the Atlanta Braves had gotten away with a heist when it came to Reynaldo Lopez. Many outside observers had raised eyebrows when the Braves signed Lopez and signaled their intention to convert him back into being a starter. However, after a 2024 season where Lopez posted a 1.99 ERA across 135.2 innings pitched, it seemed as though the Braves had made a savvy gamble. Unfortunately, that is when things started going sideways.
Things started to go sideways just as the 2025 season was starting to get going. It was revealed that Lopez needed surgery on his throwing shoulder, but there was hope that there wouldn't be any long-term concerns. The procedure that Lopez underwent was heavily sold as just an arthroscopic clean-up procedure that shouldn't keep him out nearly as long as other shoulder surgeries. However, Lopez would go on to miss the rest of the season and has looked like a shadow of his former self in 2026, including after being shifted back to the bullpen.
All of that is straightforward to understand. Lopez got hurt, and now he is struggling to regain his form. Easy. Where things get a bit more difficult is with Atlanta's decision after Lopez's strong 2024 season to restructure his contract. That may have freed up some 2025 luxury tax space, but it also may have saddled the Braves with a guy making real money that could be on his way out.
Reynaldo Lopez's decline is making the Braves' contract decision with him age very poorly
If Lopez's raw stuff looked similar and he was still struggling, his current struggles would be understandable and far less concerning. However, Lopez's fastball is down 1.4 mph on average over what he was doing in 2024, and his slider has gone from one of his absolute best pitches (.199 xBA against in 2024) to one of his absolute worst (.318 xBA so far in 2026). This isn't a guy who is just a little rusty with his command. From everything we can see, this is a pitcher whose mechanics are out of whack and who physically can't do what he used to.
This is obviously problematic. In order to free up some payroll for last year, the Braves and Lopez agreed to restructure his deal, where his guaranteed money was more spread out in exchange for guaranteeing Lopez's $8 million club option for 2027. Based on how he is pitching right now, having Lopez on the Braves' payroll at all next year is likely to be a net-negative, whether he is in the rotation or in the bullpen.
After Lopez's collapse against the Blue Jays on Thursday, there are even more short-term questions. The Braves should be getting Hurston Waldrep back relatively soon, and Spencer Schwellenbach remains on track to return at some point this season. Once they are back, the odds are good that at least one of Grant Holmes or Martin Perez gets pushed to long relief. If that happens and Lopez still hasn't figured things out, he could find himself on the outside looking in when it comes to playing time and potentially on the trade market once we get closer to the deadline.
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