Passing the eye test is not always the most definitive measure in baseball, as players can thrive despite unconventional mechanics or approaches, it still holds evaluative value. When both the visual assessment and the underlying metrics align negatively, it becomes a legitimate cause for concern.
Unfortunately, that appears to be the case for Atlanta Braves starter, Reynaldo López. While the right-hander managed to maintain a low ERA early in the 2026 season, his underlying performance painted a far less encouraging picture. That early success proved unsustainable, as regression set in quickly. Consecutive poor outings have only amplified concerns, leaving Braves fans increasingly uneasy about López’s outlook moving forward.
López managed to record just three outs against the Nationals on Tuesday, and the abbreviated outing pushed his season ERA to 3.74 while his FIP climbed to 5.36. While some have attributed his struggles in 2026 to a dip in velocity, the more pressing issue may be the diminished effectiveness of his slider, which has been far less reliable as a put-away pitch this season.
In 2024, Reynaldo Lopez had an average fastball velocity of 95.7 mph and an average slider velocity of 85.0 mph
— Stephen (@b_outliers) April 22, 2026
In 2026, the fastball velocity is down to 93.9 mph and the slider is down to 83.1 mph
still relatively early but something to track
The fall off with Reynaldo Lopez's slider is a terrifying development
When López was at his best in 2024, he relied heavily on his slider as a defining weapon. His premium velocity certainly complemented his arsenal, but it was the dominance of that breaking pitch that truly separated him, evidenced by a 99th-percentile ranking in Breaking Run Value. In 2026, however, that strength has turned into a glaring weakness. López now sits in the 1st percentile in the same metric—a dramatic reversal that highlights just how significantly his slider’s effectiveness has deteriorated.
López’s slider has taken a significant step back in 2026, with its whiff rate dropping by more than 11% compared to his dominant 2024 campaign. The results have been just as troubling: opposing hitters have seen their production against the pitch skyrocket, as evidenced by a jump in wOBA from .220 to .440. The pitch lacks its previous sharpness, command has wavered, and it’s being hit harder than ever—a recipe for disaster.
López’s struggles have become significant enough that the Braves are adjusting accordingly—prioritizing extra rest between his starts while also turning to some of their more promising pitching prospects for support. If López is going to right the ship, rediscovering the characteristics that made his slider so effective in 2024 will be a critical first step.
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