There is so much to like about how Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson has started this season. He has not only been the Braves' best hitter, but he has been the best hitter in the NL (by fWAR), and his 181 wRC+ ranks only behind Ben Rice, Yordan Alvarez, and Aaron Judge in all of baseball. It is no wonder that there is already MVP buzz around what he is doing at the moment.
However, some is at least a little off, but it is far from a bad thing. No, it has nothing to do with Olson's batted ball metrics, contract, or even his health. Instead, it has to do with a trend that has established itself since 2018, when Olson was just 24 years old. Somehow, Olson is beating his Even-Year Curse.
Matt Olson is not supposed to be doing this in an even year, and Braves fans absolutely love it
This may require a bit of explanation. If you go back to 2018, Olson has alternated okay seasons with really strong seasons at the plate. Just take a quick look here at his wRC+ over that span.
Year | wRC+ |
|---|---|
2018 | 119 |
2019 | 135 |
2020 | 104 |
2021 | 147 |
2022 | 121 |
2023 | 162 |
2024 | 117 |
2025 | 136 |
It is definitely a weird trend, but one that has held true for a long time...until now. At the moment, Olson, during an even-numbered year, is on track to post the best offensive season of his career. Through 41 games, Olson is slashing .296/.377/.654 with 14 home runs and 36 RBI. His career-high 162 wRC+ came in 2023 when Olson was making a real MVP run, until Ronald Acuña Jr. put together a 40/70 season and made the race moot. That pales in comparison to Olson's current wRC+ of 181.
The crazy thing is that May isn't even supposed to be one of Olson's good months, again, if his career splits are any indication. Over the course of his career, Olson has only hit .237 in the month of May and sports a career .843 OPS for the month as well. If he is doing this now, one cannot help but wonder what he will do in June or September, his two best months (usually).
Is there actually anything to Olson's Even-Year Curse? Probably not. Sometimes numbers can be weird in baseball, and we are only talking about single-digit years here. However, it is still pretty fun to see him breaking the curse in real time (for now) and in emphatic fashion.
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