When it became clear that the Atlanta Braves were going to be relying on Martin Perez heavily at the start of the 2026 season, there was a fair amount of understandable skepticism. At this stage of his career, Perez is pretty much a junkballer, and it was debatable as to whether or not he had what it took to be a starter in the majors anymore. An early-season hot streak seemed to quiet those doubts, but they weren't gone forever.
Through his first nine appearances for the Braves this season, Perez posted a much-needed 2.25 ERA across 36 innings of work despite some somewhat concerning peripherals (a 4.08 FIP being chief among them). However, signs began to appear that the regression monster was coming to claim him, and after his last two starts, it appears as though the magic has worn off.
Martin Perez is turning back into a pumpkin, and the Braves really can't afford for that to happen right now
In a fortunate turn of events, the bad version of Perez isn't a TOTAL disaster. The veteran starter is very crafty and can generally stop the bleeding well enough to protect against getting blown out immediately. However, that does not mean that he has been helping the cause much at all.
Over Perez's last eight appearances, that FIP of his has turned out to be pretty accurate. He has only managed a 4.17 ERA, with his strikeout rate getting worse and his walk rate getting much worse. Anyone who has watched Perez lately can attest that Perez knows that he doesn't have the command right now to compete in the zone, and when he makes mistakes, they get punished. That is a tough tightrope to walk.
His last two starts illustrate this well. Against the Padres, Perez only lasted four innings, and while he "only" gave up three runs, he also walked four batters and was in trouble for large portions of his outing. In Tuesday's matchup against the Cardinals, walks remained a problem, and with the extra baserunners, all it took was one errant cutter right over the plate for Atlanta to be in a big hole.
Unfortunately, the Braves don't have a fix for Perez at this point. They were already desperately trying to shuffle their rotation around to make Spencer Strider's absence and Grant Holmes' move back to the bullpen work. Based on how things sound, a trade to fix it isn't even going to be possible until after the draft. As a result, Atlanta just has to hope that Perez can turn back the clock for a little longer, although trends suggest that things could get much worse.
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