Spring training can tell us a lot about the Atlanta Braves, or any team in MLB, really. With the Braves, we will find exactly how injured arms like Grant Holmes are doing, and we will get a good look at new additions Mauricio Dubon and Robert Suarez. However, there are some Atlanta fans who look at the team's spring training record and either despair or celebrate when reality is more complicated than that.
To illustrate this point, one needs only look back at previous spring trainings compared to how the Braves fared during the regular season. Sometimes, the end result is shockingly close to how Atlanta did overall, while their spring training record wasn't even close with others.
Braves' spring training record paints a more complicated picture than just wins and losses
Pulling spring training data from way back is very tedious, but that information is much more readily available since 2009. The Braves' spring training record overall is 272-295 since the start of the 2009 season, which is plenty big enough of a sample for us to look at here.
There were some results that were really close to how things actually turned out. The Braves only went 15-13 back in the spring of 2021 when they went on to win the World Series, but it is important to remember that Atlanta actually struggled somewhat in the regular season that year due to injuries and had to break the playoff bracket to get their trophy. On the other side, Atlanta went 5-20 in 2016 spring training, and the regular season was an abomination at 68-93 in terms of wins and losses.
However, the results are not consistent. Take 2009 when the Braves went 21-12 in spring training, which you would THINK would foretell a great regular season. Instead, Atlanta was only able to muster an 86-76 record and a third-place finish in the NL East.
Ultimately, the problem with using spring training as a predictor of anything is problematic, as each Braves team uses spring training differently. Sometimes, it is about getting a good look at a number of higher-level prospects to see how close they are to contributing in the majors. During others, it is about giving veterans who perhaps are coming off an injury and need innings to build back up plenty of playing time. All it really takes to make a spring training look rough is for the Braves to hold out a couple of regulars for precautionary reasons after getting dinged up, but who are fine for the regular season.
It is certainly still fun to see the Braves in some standings after a long offseason, and everyone can agree that winning spring training games is better than losing them. However, the wins and losses during spring training don't tell us as much about a team as fans might think.