On August 1, 2022, the Atlanta Braves gave Austin Riley a 10-year, $212 million extension, and it was widely praised. Riley was in the middle of his second straight 6+ rWAR season and looked poised to be a perennial MVP candidate. While Atlanta's bet on Riley looked great after his stellar 2023 season, things have been trending in the wrong direction ever since.
Following two seasons that saw Riley battle multiple injuries and only manage to post a mediocre .258/.316/.445 line, he needed to have a good season this year. No one doubts Riley's desire to live up to the lofty expectations that came with his nine-figure extension, but fans wanted (and maybe needed) to see actual results. Unfortunately, those results have not been coming, and his extension now looks like it could end up being a mistake.
Austin Riley's brutal start to 2026 is calling into question the wisdom of the extension the Braves gave him
Before anyone gets too upset here, there is time for Riley to turn things around. Not only is he under contract through at least 2032, but Riley still has some things going for him. He still is showing quality bat speed, and his average exit velocity and hard hit % remain strong in 2026. Unfortunately, the rest of the picture is not looking as promising.
Through 159 plate appearances this year, Riley's meager .203/.277/.350 line looks more like a guy that should be hitting at the bottom of the order, and many of his plate appearances lately have been completely uncompetitive. In addition to getting destroyed by breaking and offspeed pitches this year, Riley can't seem to find the barrel when he does make contact. He still hits the ball hard, but that is much less exciting when he is on track to post a career-high ground-ball rate of 43%. Hell, even his defense has been bad as he has only been good for -3 Outs Above Average in 2026 so far.
At $22 million a year, it is fair to say that that level of production isn't going to cut it. It is wild to think that the narrative around Riley's extension has gone from how he may have left money on the table to looking like an albatross around the Braves' neck, but here we are. If Riley doesn't turn things around soon, you are going to start hearing fans call him a bust (if you aren't hearing that already).
As to the cause of Riley's issues, that is hard to pinpoint. The easy culprit to blame is his injuries, and that may prove accurate. Breaking a bone in one's hand can sap a hitter's power for an indeterminate amount of time, and there is a chance that his hernia surgery has caused some hesitation and made it harder to keep his swing consistent and explosive. It's also possible that Riley is just in a funk and he has falled into some old habits that have made him vulnerable to non-fastballs again.
Whatever is going on, it isn't good. The Braves have been able to mask Riley's struggles in 2026 because the team has been great as a whole. However, fans are noticing more and more, and at some point, Riley will cost Atlanta some games if he doesn't figure out how to be a real contributor again and earn his contract.
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