The MLB Draft is one of the most important aspects for teams each season. It allows them to build organizational depth and if they're lucky, a future star. The Atlanta Braves know this all too well as they've benefitted from the draft many times.
However, there are bound to be busts every now and then. Some organizations are luckier than others, but a good draft strategy also plays a huge role in finding success. Making a wise decision with the first pick is an easy way to impact any organization.
How well have the Braves done with their first round picks? According an article from Bleacher Report that broke down first round picks from the last decade and a half, not very well as Atlanta was ranked 24th among all 30 MLB teams.
Grade of Braves' first round picks since 2010 is not kind to the team's draft strategy
The article does mention what they considered for the criteria and it includes all signed first-round picks made from 2010 to 2024. They also included supplementary and compensation picks. Finally, the main metric used to sort the rankings is the average bWAR of picks as well as average draft pick number.
With the criteria out of the way, let's see why the Braves only earned a 2.35 bWAR per each signed first-round pick. Austin Riley is seen as Atlanta's "crown jewel" after he was drafted in 2015 during the competitive balance round at 41st overall.
The Braves' very first pick of that draft was starter Kolby Allard. Allard didn't end up becoming a major factor for the organization, but Riley has been worth his weight in gold.
Unfortunately, Atlanta has made some very underwhelming first choices over the last 15 years. Here's a list of each first-round pick with the corresponding year:
2010: Matthew Lipka, SS, 35th overall
2011: Sean Gilmartin, P, 28th overall
2012: Lucas Sims, P, 21st overall
2013: Jason Hursh, P, 31st overall
2014: Braxton Davidson, OF, 32nd overall
2015: Kolby Allard, P, 14th
2015: Michael Soroka, P, 28th overall
2015: Austin Riley, 3B, 41st overall
2016: Ian Anderson, P, 3rd overall
2016: Joey Wentz, P, 40th overall
2017: Kyle Wright, P, 5th overall
2018: Carter Stewart, P, 8th overall (did not sign)
2019: Shea Langeliers, C, 9th overall
2019: Braden Shewmake, SS, 21st overall
2020: Jared Shuster, P, 25th overall
2021: Ryan Cusick, P, 24th overall
2022: Owen Murphy, P, 20th overall
2022: JR Ritchie, P, 35th overall
2023: Hurston Waldrep, P, 24th overall
2024: Cam Caminiti, P, 24th overall
It's clear to see Atlanta's preferred strategy is taking pitchers with the first pick. Sometimes that has worked out, but more often than not, it comes back to bite them. Take Ian Anderson for example. He was a huge bust for the Braves, especially after being the third pick. The Dodgers, for example, picked Will Smith, who has become of the best backstops in baseball.
Anderson had some glimmers of success but injury ended that very quickly. He hasn't been able to regain any of the momentum he found from 2020 to 2021. There's no guarantee any prospect will make it in the big leagues, but you'd hope the Braves would pick an impact player with that high of a pick.
This is probably why Atlanta decided to change things up in 2025 and heavily draft position players. They took three shortstops in the first three rounds. Not only that, but they also added a few outfielders. There was still a good amount of pitching selected in the later rounds, but this change in philosophy could be good for them.