Of all the markets that the Atlanta Braves have been rumored to be connected to this offseason, the one where the most actual names have been mentioned is starting pitching. The current dream scenario is trading for Garrett Crochet, but Nathan Eovaldi has been repeatedly mentioned as a Braves target with others such as Sean Manaea and Jack Flaherty also getting mentions here and there. Of course, the elephant in the room is Max Fried's future, but chances of a reunion seem to be diminishing by the day.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, the starting pitching market looks to be a wild place this offseason. After at or above expected contracts were handed out to guys like Yusei Kikuchi, Blake Snell, and especially Frankie Montas, it was clear that no viable free agent starter was going to sign for cheap this offseason.
Now, after the Athletics of all teams signed Luis Severino to a three year, $67 million and included an opt-out after year 2, Atlanta could have their work cut out for them if they still want to add some rotation help before the 2025 season.
BREAKING: Right-hander Luis Severino and the A’s are in agreement on a three-year, $67 million contract, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest guarantee in the history of the A’s franchise. And even with the qualifying offer attached, Severino got well over market expectations.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2024
Oakland's overpay for Luis Severino help mess up the offseason pitching market for the Braves
Severino's deal probably only has a marginal effect on the top of the free agent starter market as those guys were going to get paid either way. It is exactly that reason why the Braves have been long expected to lose Fried and not be in play for an arm like Corbin Burnes or the recently signed Snell.
Where the Braves could see problems is in the market they prefer to play in which is the starters that want short-term deals no longer than three years. Given Severino's track record, the Eovaldis and Manaeas are going to want to beat that this offseason even though Severino got $9 million more than what even the more optimistic predictions for him were.
I had 3/58.5 in my final projections so this isn't a wild overpay, but 3/67 with an opt out and giving up a draft pick is pretty wild when the 2nd highest salary for the A's is Brent Rooker's projected $5M arb award. https://t.co/xW62VHP2le
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) December 5, 2024
The Braves front office led by Alex Anthopoulos have successfully navigated tough offseason markets before, so this isn't a completely catastrophic situation. Atlanta has cleared some payroll and if they really want to add a free agent starter, they can.
What the current state of the free agent market does mean is that the likelihood that the Braves end up turning to the trade market again or give stronger consideration to their internal options like AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Ian Anderson, Dylan Dodd, or even Drue Hackenberg. As for whether or not this makes a blockbuster Crochet trade more likely, what happens over the next week at the Winter Meetings will help bring that into focus.