Why Grant Holmes isn’t the long-term answer for the Braves’ starting rotation

Despite flashes of potential, Grant Holmes’ metrics raise concerns for his future in Atlanta's starting rotation.
Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks | Norm Hall/GettyImages

The Atlanta Braves have been flying by the seat of their pants when it comes to their starting rotation. Part of that is due to injuries to Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Strider. However, some of that is from the front office not getting another starter this offseason.

Now, they couldn't have known Strider and Lopez would be injured after one start. But it still feels like they should have been overprepared. Atlanta began the season with Chris Sale, Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes, and AJ Smith-Shawver in the rotation.

After the injury to Lopez, Bryce Elder had to fill his spot in the rotation, and while it hasn't gone off the rails yet, the Braves are playing with fire. Smith-Shawver struggled a bit and was eventually sent down to Triple-A. He recently returned to the rotation with an impressive start, but an injury scare put that at risk.

Strider returned but with a hamstring injury before his second start ended that pretty quickly. There's a lot of pressure on Holmes, Smith-Shawver, and Elder to perform well. The offense returning to form has helped alleviate that pressure a bit, but Atlanta is depending on inexperienced pitchers to cover a lot of innings.

Grant Holmes has impressed early, but the Braves still need long-term rotation stability

His most recent start against the Diamondbacks was a bit rough and his ERA is now 4.50 on the season. Eugenio Suarez homered off Holmes three times in the 5.2 innings he pitched.

Holmes has been decent, but a deeper look into his advanced metrics shows it is not sustainable. His statcast page doesn't show any metrics above average, and on top of that, opponents aren't missing his fastball.

He isn't known for having the most velocity, as his fastball has averaged 94 mph this season. Opponents are batting .273 against the pitch over 42 plate appearances with four home runs. His breaking pitches have fared much better against opposing hitters and have kept him out of trouble mostly.

However, the concern lies in the fact that Holmes isn't getting a lot of chase or whiffs. He's also allowing a lot of barrels and walking a lot of batters. So far, he has issued 17 walks to 26 strikeouts in 28 innings. The right-hander issued only 15 walks over 68.1 innings last season.

Holmes was only supposed to be a fourth or fifth starter for the Braves. He's now expected to be the third starter for a team in one of baseball's toughest divisions.

Hitters were unfamiliar with Holmes last season, and he got a lot of swing and miss. He also didn't get into trouble with walks to allow mistakes to hurt him. Atlanta's long-haired hurler also got more groundvballs last season.

While he has been serviceable, it's teetering on the edge of disaster right now. Hopefully, he's able to regain some of the magic he found last year, but right now, he isn't the long-term solution for the Braves. Whether at the trade deadline or during next offseason, Atlanta must add a starting pitcher to the rotation.

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